Explanation of analysis

The overall objective of the analysis is to determine the probable effects on the Marbled Murrelet population of different management alternatives. To get to this answer we will carry out several layers of scientific study.
At the most basic level, we need to know how many Murrelets there are on Pacific Lumber lands, and on the surrounding forest lands. The habitat analysis, carried out by Redwood Sciences Lab and SEI, will determine the distribution of birds across the landscape. Ultimately this will allow us to determine the relative importance of each stand to the species. The Population Viability Analysis, carried out by Applied Biomathematics and SEI, will determine the viability (extinction risks, etc.) of the Murrelet under a range of different scenarios. This analysis will be carried out at four scales (project area, Marbled Murrelet recovery zone, zones 4 to 6, entire listed region). Included in these scenarios will be the effects of different management options, including different levels of harvest of habitat.
These two analyses will ultimately be fused to determine the probable effects of the proposed land transfer. For instance, we will estimate the probability of population survival, if the proposed 7,500 acre Headwaters Complex is preserved, but all other Pacific Lumber old-growth is harvested. Similarly, we will examine the effects of other management options, on the probability for survival of the species.

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