The modeling and risk analysis efforts described in this page are part of an analysis of the viability of Marbled Murrelet populations under various assumptions about their ecology and environment, and about the change in their habitat brought about by the proposed agreement. Population viability analysis is a process of identifying the threats faced by a species and evaluating the likelihood that the species will persist for a given time into the future. The report on the Zone 4 Metapopulation Model includes a general discussion and several references on population viability analysis.
The Marbled Murrelet model discussed in the Zone 4 Metapopulation Model Report is part of this process. It is based on the available information on the life history of the Marbled Murrelet and on parameter ranges determined at two workshops on 22-23 November 1996 (at Lewis and Clark College in Portland, OR) and on 4 March 1997 (at Redwood Sciences Laboratory in Arcata, CA) attended by representatives of various organizations, governmental agencies and companies. Following the procedures established at the workshops, large ranges instead of point estimates were used for all parameters.
The work on this and other Marbled Murrelet models are continuing with the aim of estimating the model parameters more precisely using the newly available data on the demography and the habitat of this species.
Fourth Meeting of the Oversight Panel Headwaters Project Science Advisory Panel, May 26-27, 1998.
Third Meeting of the Oversight Panel Headwaters Project Science Advisory Panel, November, 1997.
Second Meeting of the Oversight Panel Marbled Murrelet Population Viability Analysis, June, 1997.
Report on March 4th PVA workshop.
Parameters of the PVA discussed at the March 4 meeting.
Applied Biomathematics murrelet page.
Results of November 22-23 PVA Workshop.
Zone 4 Metapopulation Model Report by Applied Biomathematics.
Return to this page soon for an updated report.
