Given the slow progress of international climate talks, many have come to see the “green economy” as a more promising approach: If we can make low-carbon technologies profitable, reliable and affordable, they argue, they could be successfully deployed around the world even without mandatory emission-reduction targets.
The merits of this strategy are the subject of intense debate. However, in the new issue of Climate and Development, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), and PricewaterhouseCoopers argue that in the electricity sector, such a transformation “is already happening before our eyes”.
“Changes in the political, policy, and regulatory landscape in Europe, as well as North Africa, are taking place consistent with a continued and accelerated deployment of renewable power in the region,” the authors write. “This supports the proposition that a technology push can be sufficiently substantial and sustained to offer sources of renewable electricity that can out-compete fossil fuels, perhaps by the end of this decade, or the beginning of next. This would make them attractive globally in time to help address not just climate change but also limited energy access, even in the poorest of countries, and even in the absence of a global treaty.”
Today, renewable electricity is generally costlier than coal power, which is both the cheapest and the most carbon-intensive of the fossil fuels. Combined with infrastructure challenges, this puts renewables beyond many poor countries’ reach. The key question, the authors write, is whether a “technology push” or “energy transition” could be a viable alternative – or at least a valuable complement – to a global climate treaty.
To test this notion, the authors examine the renewables deployment progress in Europe, noting that the continent has been a leader in renewable electricity deployment; its political geography and population density require substantial international cooperation; and it borders North Africa, “which has solar and wind resources vastly exceeding its domestic electricity demand”.
Using a framework based on technological transitions research, they analyse how a set of recent events – from the global financial and European debt crisis, to electricity policy developments, to the Japan earthquake and nuclear crisis – could affect a transition towards 100 per cent renewable electricity in Europe and North Africa by 2050. They find a mix of progress and setbacks, but nothing that would put Europe on a path that is “incompatible” with that 2050 goal.
“We believe that Europe can fully or almost entirely decarbonise its electric sector by 2050 using only or almost only renewables, as a number of recent studies have shown,” says Johan Lilliestam, a researcher on trans-disciplinary concepts and methods at PIK and lead author of the analysis.
“2050 is a long time ahead,” he adds. “Many things will still need to change and many things will change until then. The question at hand is whether Europe is starting to go in a direction not at odds with complete decarbonisation, and our research shows that in many respects Europe is already on track. It may need to step up its game in some areas, however, such as harmonising and updating rules for faster infrastructure siting.”
Even if Europe can decarbonise its power supply, Lilliestam acknowledges, it is hard to predict how soon renewables will become as affordable as coal power.
“If the costs for these new technologies continue to fall at their current rate, then we can indeed look forward in the near future to a time where it will be the sensible economic choice for all people, rich or poor, to invest in them, rather than fossil fuel technology,” Lilliestam says. “However, upfront capital costs may remain higher than for fossil-fuel technologies, so adequate financing will be crucial. In addition, poor and rich countries alike will need to ensure that infrastructure is built up in a renewables-compatible way.”
Read the article (external link to journal; subscription required)
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