Regions at risk are assessed in view of the nature of complexity as cross-scale interactions, the impossibility of predicting futures and the potential for flips in quasi-equilibrium states. While multi-attribute analyses of vulnerability, risk and ‘hot spots’ are commonly studied, the anticipation of new vulnerabilities, and new environment-development interactions, has not yet been demonstrated.
The policy implications of our research concern the governance of regions at risk – those complexes of environment-development interactions that are at or close to a tipping point of collapse.
Our concern is to explore plausible futures where a complex of vulnerability tips into a humanitarian crisis. Conversely, we also intend to explore the potential for scaled up improvements in livelihoods, those plausible futures that achieve sustainability and a substantial reduction in vulnerability.
Dialogue with stakeholders at several scales is an integral part of this research in order to understand the conditions for transformative interventions.
Design and development by Soapbox.