Science, policy, action: working together to reduce Super El Niño risks

The world is facing a super El Niño in the summer of 2026, forecasted to be one of the strongest on record. During the 2015/2016 event, an estimated 60 million food‑insecure people were negatively affected. A super El Niño unfolding at the same time as the Houthi‑driven Red Sea crisis creates a compounded global shock that affects food security, supply chains, energy markets, and humanitarian operations simultaneously.

Extreme weather events like El Niño are shaping rainfall patterns, intensifying droughts, floods, and storms, but their effects are predictable. This predictability provides us with a window of opportunity to act before disaster strikes.

In 2015, WFP piloted its first anticipatory action program in Zimbabwe ahead of El Niño. This year, WFP stands ready in 51 countries and has already supported over 1 million people this year alone. This is the kind of innovation at scale that is urgently needed as food crises deepen.

In this seminar, Richard Choularton, WFP, together with Swedish experts in conversation with Katy Harris, SEI, will elaborate on how governments, academia, and organizations can work together to reduce the impacts of extreme weather events like El Niño.

The conversation will highlight how anticipatory action, climate‑informed social protection, and cross‑sector collaboration can dramatically reduce humanitarian needs.

We will discuss:

• How governments can use climate forecasts to trigger early support for at‑risk communities,
• The role of research in improving climate modelling, risk analysis, and evidence‑based decision‑making,
• Why anticipatory action must become a standard tool in responding to climate‑driven crises,
• What partnerships are needed to protect lives and livelihoods during this super El Niño and beyond.

Together, we can turn climate predictions into early action and early action into saved lives.