Electric car on charge. Photo: MJ_Prototype / Getty Images.

The authors assessed 48 models available to consumers since 199, collecting data on attributes, weight and vehicle prices, and also analysed recent progress in battery pack costs. On this basis the authors modelled the share of BEV vehicle price that is related to the battery pack, and estimate when it would be possible to produce a BEV with a 200 mile range in a given price percentile.

The authors find that:

  • A non-linear transition can start at pack costs around 200–250 USD/kWh.
  • Average priced cars have a more optimist outlook than often recognised in research on compact cars.
  • Conservative assumptions delay a transition but findings are robust to sensitivity tests.