A simulation of a drift coal mine in Germany’s Deutsches Bergbau Museum. Photo: Daniel Mennerich / Flickr

Combining Input-Output (IO) and network theory, this report defines measures to identify both the sectors likely to trigger relevant capital stranding cascades and those most exposed to capital stranding risk. The authors show how, in a sample of ten European countries, mining is among the sectors with the highest external asset stranding multipliers.

The sectors most affected by capital stranding triggered by decarbonisation include electricity and gas; coke and refined petroleum products; basic metals; and transportation. From these sectors, stranding would frequently cascade down to chemicals; metal products; motor vehicles water and waste services; wholesale and retail trade; and public administration. Finally, this report provides an estimate for the lower-bound amount of assets at risk of transition-related stranding. This is in the range of 0.6% to 8.2% of the overall productive capital stock for the sample of countries, mainly concentrated in the electricity and gas sector, manufacturing, and mining. These results confirm the systemic relevance of transition-related risks on European societies.