When developing quantitative scenarios, it is necessary to choose parameter values to fit a particular story line, such as growth rates and resource-use efficiencies. This paper describes one approach to making such choices using Bayesian statistical reasoning to systematically combine data from a reference set (e.g., historical data) with qualitative assessments regarding the scenario.
The result is a probability distribution, rather than a single value, reflecting the non-unique correspondence between a qualitative description of a scenario and its quantitative realization.
The paper also describes a simple software tool that implements the method.
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