Overhead catenary electric road systems for freight transportation trucks are being tested in Sandviken, Sweden. Photo: Björn Nykvist / SEI.

Sweden’s twin goals – to reduce carbon emissions by 70% in 2030 relative to 2010, and to completely decarbonize by 2045 – present a dilemma: Sweden’s diesel truck transportation sector will likely have to make hard choices. Will it choose to meet near-term goals with biofuels? Or will it push more heavily towards electrification options that are essential for long-term climate mitigation goals?

Even though key Swedish stakeholders believe that biofuels remain important for Sweden, a shift in sales from internal combustion engines to electrification of trucks will likely start in the coming decade. This means that an analysis of post-2030 biofuel use is needed – and sooner rather than later – to determine how to make this second shift that will unfold among
the truck fleet.

Both biofuels and electrification are important for Sweden’s freight transport stakeholders; however, a push towards massive biofuel deployment over the coming decade for the 2030 goal would need to be accompanied by an in-depth discussion about how achieve the next needed transition towards electrification.

The authors of this brief examine insights on these issues. The analysis was conducted following discussions among key stakeholders who were assembled by SEI to provide an up-to-date outlook on key technological measures essential to reducing diesel truck transportation emissions as part of the global effort to limit climate change.