International offsets could play a major role in fulfilling developed countries’ emission reduction pledges under the Cancún Agreements, but there is great uncertainty about how they will be treated in future climate agreements.

The authors quantify the implications of double-counting of international offsets by building a spreadsheet model to analyze how potential offset supply and demand balances may evolve. They find that double-counting could effectively reduce the ambition of current pledges by up to 1.6 billion tonnes CO2e in 2020.

They close by describing several possible ways to address the risks of offset double-counting.

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