Editor’s choice
Editor’s choice
This study offers a methodological contribution to improving the assessment of critical raw materials, with relevance for both researchers and policymakers.
Adoption of electric vehicles and battery stationary storage is increasing lithium demand. The EU is import-dependent and has formulated supply-security targets for self-sufficiency (10% by 2030) and recycled content (6% by 2031 and 12% by 2036). This study critically assesses these targets by developing scenarios for lithium supply, demand, and recycling, and shows that recycled batteries make only a modest contribution to self-sufficiency, falling short of policymakers’ targets.
The finding is sensitive to assumed battery lifetimes. The EU lithium projects designated as strategic are more than sufficient to meet the 2030 self-sufficiency target. By 2036, self-sufficiency ranges between 31% and 78%, assuming all projects commence as announced. In addition, future supply from European companies’ investments in other continents is estimated to exceed domestic output. The findings indicate that resource efficiency and substitution are key to achieving high levels of self-sufficiency, while recycling has a limited role in the short term.
Journal article / Researchers will conduct a review that is global in scope, with the aim to inform Swedish decision making on hydropower.
Perspective / The EU and Mercosur countries' treaty puts the two trade blocks in a position to lead towards responsible production of these materials for a green transition.
Perspective / The war in Ukraine shows that to build resilience, European energy systems must embed local renewables, writes SEI Tallinn Expert Erika Tšerkašina.
