Announcements
Announcements
This change story is from our 2019 annual report.
Coal, oil and gas are the central drivers of climate change, but they are rarely the subject of international climate policy and negotiations. The phrase “fossil fuels” never appears in the Paris Agreement – and yet such fuels account for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
SEI has worked for years to change this climate discourse, with a clear-cut message: the world must wind down fossil fuel production to keep global warming to “well below” 2°C. A wealth of SEI analyses, publications, op-eds and events have steadily shifted norms and built a community of practice around the idea that climate policy must target both fossil fuel consumption and production.
In November 2019, SEI released the report in partnership with UNEP, the International Institute for Sustainable Development, the Overseas Development Institute, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, and Climate Analytics. It coined the term production gap, meaning the difference between government plans for fossil fuel production, and global production levels consistent with climate goals.
The authors found that the world is on track to produce far more fossil fuels than is consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. They also detailed how countries can limit fossil fuel production, and what steps can be taken within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The fossil fuel production gap – the difference between national production plans and low-carbon pathways (1.5°C and 2°C) as expressed in fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions – widens between 2015 and 2040.
The report gained worldwide media attention, with coverage in hundreds of print, radio and TV outlets, including The Guardian, Reuters, The Economist, CNN, and National Geographic. Noted climate author Bill McKibben called it “one of the most important pieces of research in years”
Policymakers endorsed the report and emphasized the importance of its message, including UNFCCC Executive Secretary Patricia Espinosa, UN Secretary General António Guterres, Spain’s minister for ecological transition Teresa Ribera, and Sweden’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Environment and Climate Isabella Lövin.
“This important report shows that governments’ projected and planned levels of coal, oil and gas production are dangerously out of step with the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.”
—Lord Nicholas Stern, IG Patel Professor of Economics and Government, LSE; and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
The report also sparked conversations in government circles that oversee fossil fuel production. Citing the report, the Norwegian Parliament submitted a formal question to the Minister of Oil and Energy, Kjell-Børge Freiberg, asking what the government would do to address its production gap. The US congressional delegation to COP25 – including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi – met with NGOs and discussed the report in a briefing. The US Congress is expected to consider legislation to increase lease rates and slow production of coal, oil, and gas on federal lands, which could lead to testimony related to the report.
The Production Gap Report tapped into a growing realization – among politicians, civil society and the public – that countries need to directly address the supply of fossil fuels to meet climate goals.
But awareness is only the first step. The Report is built to be an annual institution, much like the UNEP Emissions Gap Report. While some countries are limiting oil and gas expansion, divesting from fossil fuels, and planning equitable transitions, much more needs to be done. Part of the solution is transparency and tracking – and the Production Gap Report will continue to keep tabs on supply-side progress.
SEI focuses on effective, equitable ways to mitigate and adapt to climate change for a safer climate for all. Adaptation to climate change is a key area of our research. In particular, we look at adaptation policy and finance under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, vulnerability assessments, capacity building and community-based adaptation.
SEI advances knowledge on the emissions implications of fossil fuel production, and on policies that restrict fossil fuel supply. It does this through both research and by helping build a “community of practice” on the connections between fossil fuel supply, climate change, and development. This work not only addresses SDG 13, but also SDG 11: Sustainable cities and communities. SEI research has also shown that equity in climate action is a practical necessity in
meeting Paris Agreement goals. This work thus addresses SDG 10: Reduced inequalities.
This is an impact story – a highlight of our work from 2019. This story and a selection of others can be found in our annual report.
SEI annual report / Read the annual round up of SEI's research, engagement and operations in 2019 – how we work in partnership for change.
Other publication / This report is the first assessment of the gap between Paris Agreement goals and countries’ planned production of coal, oil and gas.
Feature / The new Production Gap Report shows that the world is on track to produce 120% more fossil fuels than can be burned under 1.5°C warming.
Feature / Government and UN officials were among those who discussed how governments are expanding, or limiting, fossil fuels amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
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