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Project

Strengthening evidence on the outcomes of locally led adaptation

SEI is seeking to enhance understanding about the effectiveness of locally led approaches to help boost vulnerable communities’ resilience to the impacts of climate change. The work aims to strengthen the evidence base to help funders and policymakers provide needed support for more equitable and beneficial adaptation actions, and to help empower and inform local communities as they seek to chart their own climate-resilient futures.

 

  

Rozsadnyk is an eco-education and nature therapy space in Lviv, Ukraine, that combines nature-based solutions, climate adaptation, and therapeutic gardening to strengthen local resilience. Photo: Iryna Dovhopoliuk / Ukrainian Climate Network

Active project

2026–2028

Since 2021, more than 130 organizations and governments have endorsed the 8 Principles for Locally Led Adaptation (LLA), which were created to give communities greater agency in making decisions about how to adapt to climate change and plan more sustainable futures. Over this period of time, however, only a small share of international climate finance has gone towards supporting adaptation at local levels – and an even smaller portion of this funding is truly locally led. In an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment, LLA must compete with other urgent priorities, such as energy and national security, for international investment.

Funders, policymakers, and practitioners have repeated highlighted the need for stronger, more nuanced evidence on the effectiveness of LLA approaches. Funders argue that they need better evidence of outcomes to demonstrate that LLA works not only as a process – improving participation, equity, and legitimacy of adaptation decision-making – but also to strengthen vulnerable communities’ resilience to climate change and contribute to other long term benefits. Funders insist that providing such evidence will help them advocate for funding – both within their institutions and to other funders –  and inform more equitable investment and design decisions.

But their demand for evidence of outcomes is controversial.

Some LLA advocates argue that the request for evidence is a red herring, a distraction or a delay tactic. They perceive the barriers to LLA as fundamentally about power. That is, they  believe that funders and governments are unwilling to devolve real decision-making and financial authority to local actors. They argue that better information will not increase the share of financing to LLA as long as those in power distrust communities to use resources responsibly and effectively.

Others assert that evidence of positive outcomes is already widespread, and that the challenge is entirely different. They argue that decision-makers do not take up the available evidence because of the type of evidence provided. Such evidence is usually generated through participatory processes, lived experience, storytelling, and locally grounded ways of knowing. It is often considered to be “inaccessible” to funders and policymakers either because it is in a language or format outside their normal decision-making procedures, or, most controversially, because it is not recognized or valued because of who produces this knowledge.

Still others argue that it the best use of limited resources is not measuring outcomes – and that it is not the job of traditional or marginalized communities to perform or prove adaptation “success”.

While recognizing these questions of power, and competing values and epistemologies (ways of knowing), the scientific community is also grappling with core methodological challenges in measuring the effectiveness of climate adaptation overall. High degrees of uncertainty over warming scenarios and climate impacts make evaluation of adaptation efforts difficult over long time frames. Different actors often have radically different visions of desirable futures, raising the question of whether it is even possible to objectively assess adaptation “success”.

LLA also presents unique challenges in measuring effectiveness, with potentially high risks of maladaptation (when action intended to reduce risk ends up increasing it) and negative spillover effects (when effective adaptation for one group or community increases vulnerability for a neighboring group or community).

Bridging the gap

SEI is embarking on work to help bridge this gap between funders and communities that are seeking to be leaders of their own adaptation efforts. To begin, in June, it is convening a symposium that brings together key knowledge holders and producers from a range of geographies and perspectives to discuss how to strengthen the evidence base on the outcomes of LLA.

The work seeks to:

  • Exchange and examine recently collected evidence on outcomes drawn from a variety of methods and approaches and evaluate outcomes along different dimensions.
  • Assess existing evidence base to better understand whether, how, and in what context LLA builds immediate and long-term resilience to climate risks.
  • Critically interrogate the concept of evidence and evaluate demand from different actors (funders, national governments, research and community-based organizations, communities), focused on the question: If evidence exists why is it not reaching decision-makers and being taken up?
  • Develop, with key partners, a forward-looking agenda to fill key research gaps and bridge knowledge divides.