Bioenergy markets are increasingly international, and climate change is likely to impact all stages of bioenergy supply chains. Increased prevalence of droughts and pests can impact cultivation systems for energy crops, warmer winters can reduce need for bio-based heating and fuel supply systems can be disrupted by flash floods.

The overall impacts on bioenergy markets in Nordic countries, however, are most likely to be benign, with climate change resulting in increased biomass productivity while at the same time reducing demand. This means that the Nordic region could grow in importance as a supplier of renewable energy, e.g. for parts of Europe that will be adversely affected by climate change. However, the Nordic countries are currently substantial importers of bioenergy, which means that not only are they exposed to climate change impacts on global bioenergy supply chains, their demand for bioenergy can also indirectly impact adaptive capacities in other regions.

Increased understanding of the inter-relationships between bioenergy markets and climate change risks and responses – for both mitigation and adaptation – is imperative to ensure long-term sustainability of bioenergy as a valuable component in low-carbon futures.

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