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Journal article

Decarbonisation of Estonia’s residential building stock

This study analyses the climate implications of deep renovation and energy supply decarbonisation in Estonia. The study estimates the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of renovating the entire Estonian residential building stock by 2050, as outlined in the national long-term renovation strategy. 

Peter Robert Walke / Published on 31 December 2025

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Citation

Lylykangas, K., Kertsmik, K.-A., Cerrone, D., Walke, P., Kuusk, K., & Kalamees, T. (2025). Decarbonisation of Estonia’s residential building stock. Energy and Buildings, 346, 116193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2025.116193

Key messages

  • Operational energy dominates the climate impact of Estonia’s building stock.

  • By 2050, current strategies cut 95 % of residential building greenhouse gas emissions.

  • Renovation and energy decarbonization impacts are deeply interlinked.

  • Without cleaner energy, deep renovation may paradoxically raise total emissions.

  • Renovation cuts energy demand, enhancing the decarbonization of the energy system.

An aerial view of a Soviet-era high-rise apartment building in the Õismäe district of Tallinn, Estonia. The upper section of the building is highlighted, showcasing a series of bold red balconies against the backdrop of prefabricated concrete panels. The striking red accents contrast with the otherwise gray façade, adding a touch of vibrancy to the utilitarian design. Above, a clear blue sky stretches out, with only a few wisps of white clouds, enhancing the brightness and openness of the scene. This image captures the distinctive features of Soviet architecture, with its focus on function, but also subtle moments of color and life.

Soviet-era apartment building in the Õismäe district of Tallinn, Estonia.

Photo: Bernhard Lang/Getty Images

The findings of this study indicate that the complete implementation of decarbonisation strategies could reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions from the existing residential stock by up to 95% compared to 2020. The embodied emissions from the renovation measures are minor compared to the energy savings gained. In the Estonian context, the overall success of building decarbonisation is closely tied to the carbon intensity of grid electricity. If the current fuel mix in electricity and district heating production persists, comprehensive renovation may paradoxically result in higher emissions than the baseline.

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SEI author

Peter Robert Walke

Expert (Climate Systems and Energy Policy Unit)

SEI Tallinn

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Topics and subtopics
Energy : Household energy / Climate : Climate policy
Related centres
SEI Tallinn
Regions
Estonia