The International Energy Agency predicts that global coal demand will reduce by 70% by 2050. But what does that mean for coal-dependent countries like South Africa?
This working paper explores how the concept of a just transition away from coal has taken shape in the country – and how a diminishing coal industry might affect the workers and state-owned companies that have been entrenched in the sector for decades.
South Africa is one of the world’s most coal-dependent countries, as a major producer, exporter and consumer. But as thermal coal plants approach the end of their operational lifespans, in parallel with a political and economic movement away from coal, the country finds itself at a critical juncture. What would it look like to gradually abandon the coal sector? How will the workers and communities economically dependent on coal move forward?
The just transition away from coal – a movement that would conceptually uphold social and economic stability – looks different according to each involved party. Trade unions, state-owned coal companies and local governments paint divergent pictures of the just transition, often to each party’s own advantage.
This working paper traces the history of the just transition concept in South Africa and details the viewpoints of the stakeholders that stand to either benefit or lose out as a result of the energy transformation. The authors highlight the importance of garnering societal support for the just transition and ensuring it brings broad benefits to communities instead of limiting it to an environmentally and socially narrow path that primarily upholds the interests of the powerful.
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