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Aerial view of coal mine in Mpumalanga, South Africa.
SEI working paper

Taking stock of the just transition from coal in South Africa

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SEI working paper

Taking stock of the just transition from coal in South Africa

The International Energy Agency predicts that global coal demand will reduce by 70% by 2050. But what does that mean for coal-dependent countries like South Africa?

This working paper explores how the concept of a just transition away from coal has taken shape in the country – and how a diminishing coal industry might affect the workers and state-owned companies that have been entrenched in the sector for decades.

Claudia Strambo, Muhammed Patel, Seutame Maimele / Published on 2 September 2024

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Citation

Strambo, C., Patel, M., & Maimele, S. (2024). Taking stock of the just transition from coal in South Africa. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://doi.org/10.51414/sei2024.034

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Key messages

  • Just transition has emerged as a central theme in energy and broader development debates in South Africa, with actors across several sectors embracing the concept as a means of reducing reliance on coal in a manner that supports local livelihoods.

  • However, it has become an anchor point for promoting very different economic and political interests. While some embrace the concept as a catalyst for transformative change, others use it narrowly to advance decarbonization without upholding principles of socio-economic justice, or even to entrench the political and economic status quo.

  • As South Africa embarks on the critical phase of just transition policy implementation, it faces the challenges of balancing top-down and bottom-up change, identifying impacts, and picking “winners” through on-the-ground just transition investments and projects.

  • Upholding procedural justice and transparent decision-making, particularly regarding resource allocation and project design, is essential to address imbalances in agency and influence and to gain broad-based local support.

  • While the concept of a just transition has gained widespread acceptance in South Africa, there are real risks that a narrow, environmentally unsustainable and socially conservative interpretation will dominate just transition efforts. This approach may not align with local priorities, threatening societal support for the transition.

South Africa is one of the world’s most coal-dependent countries, as a major producer, exporter and consumer. But as thermal coal plants approach the end of their operational lifespans, in parallel with a political and economic movement away from coal, the country finds itself at a critical juncture. What would it look like to gradually abandon the coal sector? How will the workers and communities economically dependent on coal move forward?

The just transition away from coal – a movement that would conceptually uphold social and economic stability – looks different according to each involved party. Trade unions, state-owned coal companies and local governments paint divergent pictures of the just transition, often to each party’s own advantage.

This working paper traces the history of the just transition concept in South Africa and details the viewpoints of the stakeholders that stand to either benefit or lose out as a result of the energy transformation. The authors highlight the importance of garnering societal support for the just transition and ensuring it brings broad benefits to communities instead of limiting it to an environmentally and socially narrow path that primarily upholds the interests of the powerful.

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Download the working paper / PDF / 1 MB

SEI author

Claudia Strambo
Claudia Strambo

Research Fellow

SEI Headquarters

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