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The Carbon Lock-In Initiative seeks to uncover and address the interwoven social, political and technical barriers that uphold the high-carbon economy. Through research and policy engagement, we will identify policies and strategies to break dependence on high-carbon industries in order to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon future.
2020–2025
To limit dangerous global warming, the world must transition to a low-carbon economy. But this energy transition is moving too slowly – not because of a lack in technology or public support, but because of social, political, and technical barriers.
These interwoven barriers form the foundation of “carbon lock-in”, whereby ongoing investment in fossil fuel development becomes self-reinforcing and, consequently, inhibits the growth of the new green economy. Reducing global emissions requires that we address and “unlock” this entrenched high-carbon system.
The SEI Initiative on Carbon Lock-In aims to bring this issue to the forefront of climate and energy policy-making. Research will reveal how and why carbon lock-in is perpetuated – both within countries and globally – and will identify policies and strategies to break dependence on high-carbon industries. This initiative will also explore how international regimes, such as the UN Framework on Climate Change, can guide the transition away from fossil fuels.
This initiative takes a multidisciplinary approach, combining expertise on energy systems, economics, sociology, political science and health to answer a crucial question: How can society tackle carbon lock-in, and make space for a low-carbon future?
The Carbon Lock-In Initiative builds on SEI’s existing project-based work on carbon lock-in and work conducted in the previous initiative on fossil fuels and climate change.
Press release / New report published today: governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C
8 November 2023 / About Adaptation, Climate services, Disaster Risk, Fossil fuels, Mitigation and Renewables
Perspective / The new European Commission must set a bold EU emissions reduction target for 2040 to ensure climate neutrality by 2050.
6 September 2024 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Perspective / For Ecopetrol, the Colombian national oil and gas company, diversification is one strategy to navigate the “clean energy” transition – but not the main one.
23 November 2023 / About Fossil fuels
Feature / Learn more about SEI's efforts and research regarding the social acceptance of wind energy projects in La Guajira, Colombia.
2 October 2023 / About Fossil fuels, Public policy and Renewables
Media coverage / A new SEI study shows while fossil fuels are increasingly mentioned climate plans, those who will continue to extract far outnumber those who will wind it down.
15 June 2023 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics and Public policy
Media coverage / Russia's invasion of Ukraine plunged Europe into an energy crisis. But it provides a chance to spark the green economy, Jindan Gong tells Podcast and Business.
3 February 2023 / About Behaviour and choice, Business, Climate policy, Disaster Risk, Energy access, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Household energy, Mitigation, Public policy, Renewables and Sustainable lifestyles
Perspective / Russia has caused an energy crisis for Europe. SEI Research Associate Jindan Gong says this opens the door to a green energy transition across the EU.
21 December 2022 / About Climate policy, Energy access, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Household energy, Mitigation, Public policy, Renewables and Sustainable lifestyles
Perspective / As Indonesia promises a zero-carbon economy by 2060, SEI suggests 5 principles essential for implementation in policy for Indonesia’s just coal transition.
14 December 2022 / About Household energy
Perspective / To ensure a just transition, ethnic minority groups and Indigenous Peoples need to be involved in decision-making and benefit sharing.
14 November 2022 / About Climate policy, Energy access, Fossil fuels, Participation, Public policy and Renewables
Perspective / COP27 has been called the "Adaptation", "Implementation" and "African COP". SEI experts examine what it takes for COP27 to live up to the expectations.
2 November 2022 / About Adaptation, Climate policy, Finance, Fossil fuels, Pollution and Supply Chains
Feature / How did Estonia use Covid-19 recovery packages to accelerate the clean energy transition? Insights generated from the Energy Policy Tracker.
12 September 2022 / About Finance and Renewables
Feature / SEI scientists Ploy Achakulwisut and Peter Erickson advise a UK agency how the fossil fuel production gap informs the potential sale of new oil and gas leases.
3 March 2022 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
Other publication / In a letter submitted to the Massachusetts Attorney General, SEI Scientist Ploy Achakulwisut expresses support for Fossil Fuel Divest Harvard’s legal complaint.
17 September 2021 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Perspective / War, pandemic and the growing threat of climate change make the need to invest in energy efficiency all the more urgent. The technology already exists.
Feature / SEI researchers offer a deep dive into the concept of carbon lock-in and its effects in Latin America, where economies are entwined with fossil fuel production.
11 May 2022 / About Behaviour and choice, Business, Climate policy, Disaster Risk, Finance, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Mitigation, Public policy and Renewables
Perspective / The Paris Agreement goals are still within our grasp if policymakers decisively act now, say SEI US Scientists Peter Erickson and Ploy Achakulwisut.
25 April 2022 / About Climate policy, Finance, Food and agriculture, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Mitigation, Pollution, Public policy, Sustainable Development Goals and Wellbeing
Perspective / As we decarbonize our energy system, we must also address the harmful public health and environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction.
28 March 2022 / About Cities, Fossil fuels, Pollution, Public policy, Short lived climate pollutants and Sustainable Development Goals
Press release / The new Energy Policy Tracker offers a near-real-time snapshot of COVID-19 recovery packages from a climate and energy perspective.
15 July 2020 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Renewables
Perspective / The vulnerability of fossil fuel-producing countries in Latin America has been exacerbated by Covid-19, but countries are only investing more in fossil fuels.
7 November 2021 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
Perspective / Countries need to pair their emission reduction commitments with clear and transparent plans to wind down fossil fuel production.
22 October 2021 / About Climate policy and Energy access
Feature / The 2021 Production Gap Report shows governments' fossil fuel production plans remain dangerously out of sync with the Paris Agreement’s temperature limits.
20 October 2021 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
Other publication / In a letter submitted to the District Court of The Hague, SEI Senior Scientist Peter Erickson criticizes a Shell-commissioned report on oil and gas production.
26 May 2021 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Feature / Read the testimony of SEI's Peter Erickson and watch the Earth Day hearing of the House Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on the Environment.
22 April 2021 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Feature / A new Nature article lays out the economic, political and symbolic effects of subsidies – and why their removal is important to a low-carbon transition.
5 February 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Feature / The 2020 Special Report outlines how Covid-19 recovery plans could set the stage for a managed wind-down of fossil fuels as part of “build back better” efforts.
2 December 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Feature / Experts from IEA, IISD, UN and other institutions discussed Covid-19 and the next steps for energy policy at the 2020 Virtual Forum on Fossil Fuel Supply.
23 September 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Feature / Government and UN officials were among those who discussed how governments are expanding, or limiting, fossil fuels amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
6 July 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Perspective / SEI's Georgia Piggot and Peter Erickson explain "carbon lock-in" and how countries can avoid — and undo — this addiction to fossil fuels.
22 April 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Feature / SEI's Peter Erickson joined a panel of experts to discuss the importance of ensuring equity when transitioning away from fossil fuels.
4 March 2020 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Pollution and Supply Chains
Feature / The new Production Gap Report shows that the world is on track to produce 120% more fossil fuels than can be burned under 1.5°C warming.
20 November 2019 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Press release / As Congress focuses anew on climate, SEI researchers outline three principles to inform the structure of a rapid phase-out of U.S. fossil fuel production.
12 February 2019 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Journal article / This paper finds that California could reduce global emissions substantially if it joined a growing list of governments that limit oil production.
26 November 2018 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI working paper / This working paper highlights the history of just transition discourse in South Africa's coal sector, with reflections on parties' conflicting viewpoints.
2 September 2024 / About Business, Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Supply Chains
Other publication / Researchers recommend how the Colombian government can phase out its diesel subsidy to support the country's energy transition.
20 June 2024 / About Business, Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Mitigation and Public policy
Journal article / An analysis of the concepts of Social License to Operate and Social Acceptance, from the extractive industry to its application in renewable energy.
24 April 2024 / About Energy access, Participation and Renewables
SEI report / The authors identify enabling factors of social acceptance for wind energy projects and, more broadly, of a just energy transition in La Guajira.
4 January 2024 / About Energy access and Renewables
SEI working paper / Researchers review the power dynamics and distributional politics that shape resistance to phasing out coal and to opportunities for change in Colombia.
22 December 2023 / About Fossil fuels and Renewables
Other publication / Countries will, in aggregate, produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
8 November 2023 / About Business, Climate policy, Finance, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics and Public policy
SEI report / What diversification strategies do NOGCs use to engage in an energy transition? A view of four South American companies.
23 November 2023 / About Business and Fossil fuels
SEI working paper / This working paper examines cases in Colombia and México where gas infrastructure is expanded with little market justification, risking gas lock-in.
22 November 2023 / About Behaviour and choice, Business, Energy access, Fossil fuels and Public policy
SEI report / Five key points could assist in a just coal transition in Indonesia, affecting all stakeholders in finding sustainable solutions to a cleaner energy pathway.
27 October 2023 / About Fossil fuels
Journal article / Researchers analyse IPCC Sixth Assessment Report mitigation scenarios and their implications for limiting fossil fuel production.
13 September 2023 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Mitigation
SEI report / Amid growing momentum to link fossil fuel production and climate goals, transparency on countries’ alignment with Paris goals is crucial to assessing progress.
14 June 2023 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics and Public policy
SEI brief / This brief provides a snapshot of the renewables landscape for wind and solar in Colombia as of 2022.
9 March 2023 / About Renewables
Journal article / Trade policy can support climate policy beyond border measures by ensuring open markets for clean technologies and products.
23 June 2022 / About Climate policy
Other publication / Researchers tracking countries' plans toward winding down fossil fuel production have updated their database with the latest entries current as of 2022.
29 April 2022 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Mitigation and Public policy
Other publication / This report details how climate change and fossil fuel dependence affect public health, with contributions from SEI Research Fellow Ploy Achakulwisut.
25 October 2022 / About Adaptation, Climate policy, Disaster Risk, Food and agriculture, Fossil fuels, Mitigation, Pollution, Public policy, Sanitation and Wellbeing
Other publication / The 2021 report reveals that countries' fossil fuel production plans remain dangerously out of sync with the limits consistent with the Paris Agreement.
20 October 2021 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI working paper / This analysis finds that a growing number of countries are addressing fossil fuels as part of their climate mitigation activities.
24 June 2021 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI report / This report analyses how four cities transitioned away from carbon-intensive economies and the lessons that can be applied to future deindustrialization.
30 July 2021 / About Business, Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
SEI brief / This brief examines the decline of the United Kingdom's steel industry. It is part of a series that aims to provide lessons for ongoing and future transitions.
8 July 2021
SEI brief / This brief examines the closure of a major steelworks plant in Newcastle, part of a series that aims to provide lessons for ongoing and future transitions.
9 June 2021 / About Business, Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
SEI brief / This brief examines the closure of the Kodak plant in Rochester, part of a series that aims to provide lessons for ongoing and future transitions.
9 June 2021 / About Business, Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
SEI brief / This brief examines the downturn of gold mining in the Free State province, part of a series that aims to provide lessons for ongoing and future transitions.
9 June 2021 / About Business, Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
SEI working paper / This paper looks at the implications for a shared effort to align global fossil fuel production with climate limits.
13 April 2021 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Other publication / This paper distils insights into how societal transitions impact people, economies and the environment, with a focus on the green economy transition.
9 September 2020 / About Business, Fossil fuels and Public policy
SEI report / This policy report outlines seven principles to achieve and implement a just transition to a low-carbon economy.
15 June 2020
Journal article / This article explores an obstacle to supply-side policy: the national government's narrative that fossil fuel extraction is necessary for development.
6 February 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Other publication / The report considers the impact of COVID-19 on the gap between countries’ planned fossil fuels production and the levels needed to limit global warming.
3 December 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI brief / How NDCs and LT-LEDS can address fossil fuel production and support a just and sustainable recovery
12 November 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Journal article / This special issue brings together pioneering new work on supply side climate policy, amidst growing calls for an energy transition away from fossil fuels.
2 September 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI report / Further investments in oil and gas infrastructure – including new oil sands projects – are increasingly risky given market trends and fundamentals
9 June 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Journal article / This paper looks at where and how to equitably phase out oil, gas and coal production.
1 June 2020 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI working paper / This paper examines the gender- and age-related impacts of past mine closures, in order to inform current and future energy transitions.
23 April 2020 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Participation
Other publication / This report is the first assessment of the gap between Paris Agreement goals and countries’ planned production of coal, oil and gas.
20 November 2019 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Journal article / This article analyses the ways through which incumbent actors of the fossil fuel regime respond to socio-economic pressures and actively resist change.
23 September 2019 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Participation and Public policy
SEI working paper / This paper assesses the existing knowledge base to better understand the economic, social and political consequences of mine closures.
30 July 2019 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
SEI working paper / Nationally determined contributions could help in the wind-down of oil, gas and coal production. But countries are only making limited use of this potential.
24 June 2019 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI brief / Do transition policies address the needs of the most disadvantaged? This brief examines policies in the US and Thailand to highlight key equity considerations.
17 January 2019 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Public policy and Renewables
Journal article / This paper finds that California could reduce global emissions substantially if it joined a growing list of governments that limit oil production.
26 November 2018 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Journal article / What are the practical, political and ethical challenges in supply-side climate policy?
2 August 2018 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI brief / This policy brief explores what a sudden decline in coal demand could mean for Colombia, and how the country can ensure a smooth transition away from coal.
29 August 2018 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
Journal article / This article outlines why it is important that Parties to the Paris Agreement explicitly address the phasing out of fossil fuel production under the UNFCCC.
12 July 2018 / About Climate policy
SEI brief / Current and future oil sands projects may contribute to a long-term global oversupply of oil, slowing the necessary low-carbon transition outside Canada.
24 May 2018 / About Fossil fuels
SEI working paper
5 October 2015 / About Mitigation
SEI brief
23 September 2015 / About Fossil fuels and Mitigation
SEI brief
22 June 2015 / About Fossil fuels and Renewables
Past event / An expert panel reflects on how to support a just transition away from coal in three unique countries.
28 February 2024 / About Behaviour and choice, Business and Fossil fuels
Past event / Watch a detailed review of the 2023 Production Gap Report findings by leading experts, recorded on 8 November 2023.
08 November 2023 / About Business, Climate policy, Energy access, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Mitigation and Public policy
Past event / The webinar will give a first look at a new IISD report highlighting the implications of 1.5°C scenarios for fossil fuel phase-out and renewables scale-up.
24 October 2022 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Mitigation, Planning and modelling, Public policy and Renewables
Past event / The Lancet Countdown introduced its seventh annual indicator report on health and climate change in The Lancet in this virtual launch event co-sponsored by SEI.
26 October 2022 / About Adaptation, Cities, Climate services, Disaster Risk, Ecosystems, Food and agriculture, Forests, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Household energy, Pollution, Public policy, Sanitation, Transport, Water resources, Water-Energy-Food Nexus and Wellbeing
Past event / The International Conference on Fossil Fuel Supply and Climate Policy will take place from 26–27 September 2022 at The Queen's College in Oxford, UK.
26 September 2022 / About Business, Climate policy, Energy access, Finance, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Innovation, Participation, Public policy and Sustainable Development Goals
Event / In this March 2022 event, hosted by We Don't Have Time, panellists including SEI's Ploy Achakulwisut discuss the global impacts of fossil fuel subsidies.
About Business, Climate policy, Finance, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics, Mitigation and Public policy
Past event / Leading authors of the 2021 Production Gap Report walk through a detailed review of the report's findings. Watch the webinar.
21 October 2021 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Public policy
Other publication / Investigadores recomiendan cómo el gobierno colombiano puede eliminar gradualmente su subsidio al ACPM para apoyar la transición energética del país.
18 July 2024 / About Business, Climate policy, Fossil fuels, Mitigation and Public policy
SEI report / Este reporte identifica los factores sociales habilitantes para aceptación social de los proyectos eólicos en La Guajira, Colombia.
22 November 2023 / About Energy access and Renewables
Perspective / Ecopetrol debería hacer más alejarse del petróleo y el gas.
23 November 2023 / About Fossil fuels
Other publication / En conjunto, los países producirán en 2030 más del doble de combustibles fósiles de lo que sería coherente para limitar el calentamiento a 1,5 °C.
8 November 2023 / About Business, Climate policy, Finance, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics and Public policy
Feature / ¿Por qué garantizar la participación de la ciudadanía es vital para lograr transiciones energéticas justas?
5 June 2023 / About Fossil fuels and Participation
Feature / Esta historia narra el trabajo de campo de SEI en La Guajira, explorando la aceptación social de la energía eólica entre las comunidades indígenas Wayuu.
6 July 2023 / About Energy access, Fossil fuels and Public policy
Feature / Entender una transición energética justa implica escuchar las diferentes perspectivas involucradas. SEI avanza en este proceso en Valledupar, Colombia.
20 February 2023 / About Fossil fuels
SEI brief / Un análisis de las políticas energéticas de algunos gobiernos en Latinoamérica y las posibles tendencias de la transición en la región.
11 January 2023 / About Climate policy, Energy access and Public policy
Perspective / ¿Qué se puede hacer desde la cultura y el arte para contribuir a una transición justa?
9 December 2022 / About Fossil fuels
SEI report / Claves para pasar de la negación a la acción.
1 December 2021 / About Fossil fuels
SEI brief / Este documento explora las recientes políticas de apoyo a la producción de combustibles fósiles promulgadas en Latinoamérica durante la pandemia.
1 November 2021 / About Climate policy and Fossil fuels
SEI brief / Este informe de política describe siete principios para lograr e implementar una transición justa hacia una economía baja en carbono.
6 September 2021
Project / This project aims to steer renewable energy development in La Guajira towards more equitable and socially beneficial paths.
2023 / About Renewables
Project / SEI aims to support transitions from coal that address inequality and poverty.
2022 - 2023 / About Fossil fuels
Project / Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policy can play an important role in planning for transitions away from fossil fuel production in Colombia.
2021 / About Fossil fuels
Project / This database showcases ongoing research into Covid-19 recovery packages from a climate and energy perspective.
2020 - 2022 / About Climate policy, Fossil fuels and Renewables
Feature / What it means to make the transition towards a low carbon economy "just", and what it takes to achieve a just transition, is a key focus of SEI's work.
19 May 2020 / About Climate policy and Renewables
Project / SEI aims to support transitions from coal that address inequality and poverty.
2022 - 2023 / About Fossil fuels
Other publication / Countries will, in aggregate, produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
8 November 2023 / About Business, Climate policy, Finance, Fossil fuels, Geopolitics and Public policy
Perspective / As we decarbonize our energy system, we must also address the harmful public health and environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction.
28 March 2022 / About Cities, Fossil fuels, Pollution, Public policy, Short lived climate pollutants and Sustainable Development Goals
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