The authors quantify each country’s range of fair shares of 1.5 °C-compliant mitigation and contrasts that with national 2025/2030 mitigation pledges. It reveals a large global mitigation gap, within which wealthier countries’ mitigation pledges fall far short, while poorer countries’ pledges collectively meet their fair share.

The authors identify twofold obligations for all countries in a justice-centred implementation of 1.5 °C-compliant mitigation: unsupported domestic reductions and engagement in deep international mitigation cooperation. The latter can be accomplished through provision of international financial and other support, or through undertaking additional supported mitigation activities.

Consequently, an equitable pathway to 1.5 °C can only be imagined with such large-scale international cooperation and support; otherwise, 1.5 °C-compliant mitigation will remain out of reach, impose undue suffering on the world’s poorest, or both.

Read the study (external link to journal)