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Journal article

Using Base-Year Data with Empirical Scenario Models

Eric Kemp-Benedict / Published on 14 September 2007

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Citation

Kemp-Benedict, E. (2007). Using Base-Year Data with Empirical Scenario Models. Kemp-Benedict, Eric (2007). Using base-year data with empirical scenario models. Technological forecasting & social change, Sept. 14 (online). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2007.08.001

Analysing data

Analysing data

SEI engages in many different kinds of scenario exercises, including scenario modeling. A common problem arises when using empirical scenario models, because the base-year data do not exactly match the model. This paper shows that the gaps between observed and modeled values (the residuals, or shift factors) in the base year can be provide estimates of the residuals in the scenario that improve the performance of the empirical model. The paper proposes a self-consistent estimator that is shown to be effective by applying it to specific examples.

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SEI author

Eric Kemp-Benedict
Eric Kemp-Benedict

SEI Affiliated Researcher

SEI US

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