The 9th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO9) assesses pathways to strengthen energy security and advance the region’s energy transition. Key priorities of the report include improving energy efficiency, expanding renewable energy, reducing system costs, and broadening technology options.

Developed by the ASEAN Centre for Energy, with technical support from SEI, the report uses two linked energy models, LEAP and NEMO, to project ASEAN’s energy system through 2060. It supports the ASEAN Community Vision 2045 and the ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 2026–2030.

Building on previous editions, AEO9 further explores three key energy scenarios: the Baseline Scenario, the ASEAN Member State Target Scenario, and the ASEAN Coordinated Transition Scenario (ACTS). The report provides more detailed technology analysis and introduces the ACTS as a framework for exploring how regional integration can strengthen energy security, improve affordability, and support a more sustainable energy system.

The report identifies five key findings that should shape ASEAN’s energy strategy:

• Demand growth is structural, requiring a strategy designed for an energy system that expands under all plausible assumptions.
• Efficiency affects the overall level of demand, while fuel switching changes its structure.
• The transition is driven by capacity and infrastructure needs rather than generation alone, meaning strategy must focus on delivery capability as much as resource potential.
• Emissions stabilize but do not decline.
• Oil remains a permanent component of the region’s energy system, with continued exposure across all pathways as the cost of supplying it continues to rise.

SEI provided technical support for AEO9, including the LEAP and NEMO modelling used to assess the region’s long-term energy transition pathways.