The 2021 Production Gap Report, by leading research institutes and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), finds that despite increased climate ambitions and net-zero commitments, governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Photo: Bob Cuthill / Getty Images.
The report, first launched in 2019, measures the gap between governments’ planned production of coal, oil and gas and the global production levels consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement temperature limits. Two years later, the 2021 report finds the production gap largely unchanged.
Over the next two decades, governments are collectively projecting an increase in global oil and gas production and only a modest decrease in coal production. Taken together, their plans and projections see global total fossil fuel production increasing out to at least 2040, creating an ever-widening production gap.
“The devastating impacts of climate change are here for all to see. There is still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5°C, but this window of opportunity is rapidly closing,” says Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “At COP26 and beyond, the world’s governments must step up, taking rapid and immediate steps to close the fossil fuel production gap and ensure a just and equitable transition. This is what climate ambition looks like.”
The 2021 Production Gap Report provides country profiles for 15 major producer countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States. The country profiles show that most of these governments continue to provide significant policy support for fossil fuel production.
“The research is clear: global coal, oil and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C,” says Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report and SEI scientist. “However, governments continue to plan for and support levels of fossil fuel production that are vastly in excess of what we can safely burn.”
“Early efforts from development finance institutions to cut international support for fossil fuel production are encouraging, but these changes need to be followed by concrete and ambitious fossil fuel exclusion policies to limit global warming to 1.5°C,” says Lucile Dufour, Senior Policy Advisor, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
“Fossil-fuel-producing nations must recognize their role and responsibility in closing the production gap and steering us towards a safe climate future,” says Måns Nilsson, executive director at SEI. “As countries increasingly commit to net-zero emissions by mid-century, they also need to recognize the rapid reduction in fossil fuel production that their climate targets will require.”
The report is produced by SEI, IISD, ODI, E3G and UNEP. More than 80 researchers contributed to the analysis and review, spanning numerous universities, think tanks and other research organizations.
Recent announcements by the world’s largest economies to end international financing of coal are a much-needed step in phasing out fossil fuels. But, as this report starkly shows, there is still a long way to go to a clean energy future. It is urgent that all remaining public financiers as well as private finance, including commercial banks and asset managers, switch their funding from coal to renewables to promote full decarbonization of the power sector and access to renewable energy for all.
António Guterres, UN Secretary General
This report shows, once again, a simple but powerful truth: we need to stop pumping oil and gas from the ground if we are to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. We must cut with both hands of the scissors, addressing demand and supply of fossil fuels simultaneously. That is why, together with Denmark, we are leading the creation of the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance to put an end to the expansion of fossil fuel extraction, plan a just transition for workers and start winding down existing production in a managed way.
Andrea Meza, Minister for Environment and Energy of Costa Rica
The 2021 Production Gap Report once again demonstrates in no uncertain terms that we need significant reductions in the production of fossil fuels if we are to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. In response, Denmark has taken the decision to cancel all future licensing rounds for oil and gas, and completely phase out our production by 2050. With Costa Rica, we encourage all governments to undertake similar measures and join the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance to promote a managed and just phase out of fossil fuel production.
Dan Jørgensen, Minister for Climate, Energy and Utilities, Denmark
Initiative / The Carbon Lock-In Initiative seeks to uncover and address the barriers that uphold the fossil fuel-based economy.
Initiative / The Carbon Lock-In Initiative seeks to uncover and address the barriers that uphold the fossil fuel-based economy.
Past event / Leading authors of the 2021 Production Gap Report walk through a detailed review of the report's findings. Watch the webinar.
Feature / The 2021 Production Gap Report shows governments' fossil fuel production plans remain dangerously out of sync with the Paris Agreement’s temperature limits.
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