Trase: the “Beijing-Brasília effect” – the USD 47 billion trade nexus that could turn the tide for forests

Oxford, United Kingdom – Trase released a report showing how Brazil and China have the opportunity to use their powerful trade partnership to help curb deforestation and reduce climate change without compromising food security and economic stability.

The Brazil-China agricultural trade relationship, valued at nearly USD 47 billion annually, is the world’s largest, exceeding US-China agricultural trade by 40%. Trase analysis shows:

52% of Brazil’s agricultural exports go to China (2023)
34% of China’s agricultural imports come from Brazil (2023)
Brazil-China trade alone accounts for 25% of the deforestation risk linked to international agricultural commodity trade. 

Given the scale of Brazil and China’s agricultural trading relationship, joint action has the potential to benefit the sustainability of commodity trade globally, creating a phenomenon that Trase calls a Beijing-Brasília effect [1].

Deforestation risk linked to Brazil-China trade is concentrated in a relatively small number of producing regions, making targeted and scalable action that drives systemic change achievable and impactful. While more than 1500 Brazilian municipalities supply soy to China, just 73 account for 75% of the total deforestation risk.

The deep interdependence between the two countries, rooted in food security and economic stability, creates shared systemic risk, particularly as climate change and deforestation begin to undermine productivity and supply reliability. For example, a 2020 drought in southern Brazil cut soy and maize output in Rio Grande do Sul by 46% and 32% respectively. And a drought in the Amazon in 2021–22 caused an estimated USD 13 billion loss to the soy harvest, leading to a 12% drop in Brazil’s agricultural GDP in early 2022.

The report highlights five strategic actions the two countries can enhance to make their trade relations greener, based on public policies and business initiatives already in place.

The report comes out at a timely moment, as China finalizes its 15th five-year plan, with a strong focus on greening its economy and strengthening food security.