Climate scientists have cast the 2026–27 El Niño as a "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño, warning that this recurring weather phenomenon will prove to cause more catastrophe than most – especially in lower-income countries. How will this affect people on the ground across different pockets of the world? How can communities prepare and respond? SEI scientists explore these questions in a series running from November to December 2026.
El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon that typically occurs two to three times a decade. It occurs when the central and eastern Pacific Ocean dramatically warms along the equator, disrupting weather patterns across the globe.
While it occurs independently of climate change, its effects can exacerbate the existing effects of a warming planet. Reports predict the 2026–27 El Niño may be the strongest observed anywhere between 150 years of records or up to 1000 years and push global temperatures in 2027 to new highs, causing an estimated 450 000 heat-related deaths.
El Niño is a global economic and humanitarian threat when layered onto geopolitical conflict, fragile supply chains and climate-sensitive agriculture, and will affect different regions and communities in unique ways.
SEI’s tools can help policymakers take anticipatory action by turning early signals, climate data, and socio-economic information into clear, actionable decisions. Our climate service tools, modelling platforms and governance research provide a full suite of capabilities that support decision-makers acting before a crisis hits, not after.
Throughout November and December, SEI experts across the globe will weigh in on the multifaceted impacts of this phenomenon and share guidance on how societies and communities can act early and respond effectively.
SEI podcast / Aquaculture farmers from the Solomon Islands, who are already confronting the consequences of El Niño, share how they cope with a changing climate.
