Q&A: Jakob Granit on security policy implications of food and water

The Defense Committee, a forum for long-term dialogue between the government and representatives of Swedish political parties, is preparing a security policy report, to be issued in June, which will inform Swedish defense policy for 2015 and beyond. To gather a broad range of perspectives, the Committee held an open forum in late January titled, “Global risks and challenges – what threatens our security?” Below, SEI Stockholm Centre Director Jakob Granit, who spoke about the security implications of food and water issues, shares some of the key points he made.

Q: Can you tell us about the scenario you presented at the forum?
A: If society fails to address the needs of its people, it can lead to social instability, migration and potential conflict. The world is today “hyper-connected”: what is happening in one market triggers events in another. We urgently need to explore new approaches to meet the needs of growing populations in a world where natural resources are ever more constrained and where climate change is a reality. This has to include providing basic services and welfare to the “bottom billion”. Strengthening cooperation at a regional level is one way of building resilience, both from an economic and ecological perspective. We can call this the new geopolitics.

Q: Demand for water is rising, and research suggests that without increased efficiency, by 2025, there will be a global deficit of 40%. How do we make a significant change?
A: Improved water management is key. Management in this context entails tackling institutional deficits as well as lack of infrastructure. Improving efficiency measures in agriculture will be a priority in most of the world, both from a water quality and quantity perspective. Cooperation on transboundary water assets should be encouraged to promote regional integration and help resolve difficult water allocation tradeoffs.

Q: FAO predicts that feeding 9 billion people in 2050 will require a 70% increase in food production. At the forum you spoke of the importance of reducing food waste.
A: About 40% of food is wasted in both developing and developed regions. In developing regions, part of the solution is to create functioning markets and ensure that food is stored and transported to urban consumers. In rich countries food is lost at the retail level and in people’s homes. The latter can be addressed by raising awareness about consumer choice, including addressing the combined footprint – in terms of energy and water – that goes into the food we produce.

Q: Water demand from the energy sector is expected to rise by 60% over the next 30 years. How can we grapple with that?
A: The “nexus” approach supports an integrated analysis of the inter linkage between a natural resource, such as water, and what it can contribute to generate in different value chains. We need to apply that approach to issues such as the growing shale-gas revolution – that was discussed at the forum – which relies on the water-intensive “fracking” technique. Will water scarcity become a constraint to natural gas production? Those are the kinds of questions that can be addressed via the nexus perspective.

Q: Do you think that Sweden is prepared for the security policy implications of climate change?
A: The future is difficult to predict, and in Sweden, like in many parts of the world, we need to better understand how we are connected in the world today and where stresses can occur. Climate change is just one factor that we need to pay attention to. There are also uncertainties around financial markets and how food prices can change rapidly, causing severe unrest, as was the case in the Arab Spring.

Q: How do we respond to these challenges in a way that generates positive competition and innovation, rather than conflict? How do we create the “social capital” needed in our societies to collaborate on these challenges?
A: The benefits of cooperation in all its forms, through markets or other mechanisms, need to be promoted. The climate is a global public good, and one country alone cannot make the necessary change. We need to act together. At the regional level, cooperation around transboundary water resources such as the Baltic Sea is a good example. Without cooperation, tensions can arise. EU member countries and non-EU member countries in the Baltic Sea Region still have much to do to increase cooperation and address regional public goods.

Q: So how does this connect to individual citizens? Do we need measures such as the recently proposed carbon tax on meat, which sparked a storm of protest on Twitter amongst Swedes?
A: We all need to understand that producing food demands a lot of inputs and also causes externalities. This can be due to water, energy, fertilizers or the need to acquire more land for production. Arable land, water and fertilizers are already scarce resources, and new land is often acquired from sensitive tropical ecosystems. Wise consumer choice is therefore one way to contribute to a safer and greener development.