Trends in Baltic Sea collaboration amid geopolitical tension

The Baltic Sea plays an important role in the economy of the region but faces serious environmental degradation. In the 1990s, after the end of the Cold War, the nine basin countries began working together to reduce harmful emissions and protect the vulnerable environment. But since then, the atmosphere has changed, especially after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 

In response to the new situation, eight of the region’s countries have intensified their collaboration regionally, bilaterally, and through entities like the EU and NATO. At the same time, competition over space is growing between different economic sectors like energy, fishing, transport and tourism, which all try to expand in the increasingly crowded Baltic Sea basin. 

Collaboration and co-existence are rapidly emerging as defining issues in this part of the world, and SEI recently organized a discussion on the topic with perspectives from Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden. The event “Regional Cooperation in the Baltic Sea in an Era of Geopolitics” was moderated by SEI Senior Research Fellow Karina Barquet and took place on 26 June during Sweden’s political week Almedalen on the island of Gotland. It can be watched here.  

Historic mobilization 

“We in Poland feel that we have witnessed a historic mobilization and strengthened collaboration among the Baltic Sea region allies and partners,” said Karolina Ostrzyniewska, Ambassador of Poland to Sweden.  

She described this as a response to the “increase of Russian hybrid campaigns in the region”, with joint efforts to tackle threats to critical infrastructure and track the rise of a Russian shadow fleet to circumvent sanctions. 

“This collective action is our regional response that is safeguarding not only security but also the environmental and economic stability of the Baltic Sea region,” Ostrzyniewska said. 

She emphasized the close links between economic, environmental and security issues, with the shadow fleet as a clear example. When aging and often uninsured vessels carry large volumes of Russian crude oil through Baltic Sea waters, it not only undermines sanctions but increases the risk of collisions and oil spills. 

The role of energy security 

The Lithuanian ambassador to Sweden, Linas Linkevičius, echoed these concerns and emphasized energy as a key issue linking economic, environmental and security dimensions. In 2023, Lithuania became the first EU country to completely stop importing oil, gas and electricity from Russia. This marked a remarkable shift: just a decade earlier, Lithuania had one of the highest energy import dependency rates in the EU – nearly 70% –with 96.1% of its imported energy coming from Russia as recently as 2020 (Janeliūnas 2023). “We are now expanding our wind farm capacity, with new parks planned for 2030–2032,” the ambassador noted. “Our ambition is to become a net exporter of electricity by 2035.” 

The case of Lithuania has been presented as proof that it is possible to simultaneously slash carbon emissions, increase energy revenues, and strengthen national security. “Energy is geopolitics. You can be a member of NATO, of the European Union, but if you’re dependent on energy supplies, especially single source, you are always dependent. You can be blackmailed, which we have experienced all the time,” Linkevičius said.  

Small countries can band together to increase their leverage, and the ambassador hailed the collaboration and cables that connect Lithuania with, for example, Poland and Sweden.  

Balancing different interests  

Today’s level of collaboration is however insufficient, according to Karen Marie Sandgren, Founder of the consultancy Nordic Energy Connection. In her view, there is still very little policy alignment and strategic coordination beyond commitments and memorandums of understanding.  

One reason is that the countries of the region read the situation differently, which is not surprising in a complex situation. Sandgren mentioned energy as a case in point: 

“Many of the countries around the Baltic Sea believe that developing offshore wind would be a great idea for the green transition or for energy security [. . .] and everybody but Sweden seems to think that this can happen in collaboration with the armed forces,” she said, referring to a Swedish government decision in November 2024 to halt offshore wind development in the Baltic Sea as it could endanger security interests. 

Sandgren stressed that the questions about security concerns were valid and must be assessed, but she believed that Sweden would benefit from learning from the experiences of countries like Denmark, Poland and the Baltic countries: “Everybody is working very hard with the armed forces to find solutions. There are ways to navigate this complex space that promote better co-existence,” she said.  

For the future, she hoped for better formats for collaboration and strategic alignment between countries. “Despite the frameworks from the EU and other organizations, we need a powerful task force or some sort of organization that can hold all these national governments to account to ensure that we are on the same page.” 

How to manage an avalanche of data 

Torsten Linders, from the University of Gothenburg, heads the multistakeholder project Mistra Co-Creating Better Blue (C2B2), which seeks to develop better forms of collaboration in the seas surround Sweden. The project runs three living labs to test solutions, with a lab in the Baltic Proper part of the Baltic Sea led by Karina Barquet.  

Linders noted the great difference between terrestrial and sub-sea data. On land, data is abundant and widely shared, while the sub-sea is still rather data sparce and dominated by secrecy. “But that is changing, and I think it will continue to change. When we collaborate regionally, we should try to get ahead of that change and not build collaboration on secrecy, but rather on the sharing of information and data.”  

He believes that the strong trend towards transparency that we see on land will soon also come to the sub-sea domain, bringing both opportunities and risks. It is important to discuss, for example, how to manage data gathered by offshore industries.  

Juggling security issues and the blue economy 

Hans Liwång, Professor at the Swedish Defence University, welcomed the discussion about how to simultaneously manage the blue economy and security interests, including variations between different countries. “Sweden is perhaps the slowest or most backward country, but there are other examples where we are different. So, I think we need to talk more about this,” he said.  

The fact that emerging technologies often have both civilian and military applications can lead to greater openness between the defence sector and society at large, which Liwång believes could bring new knowledge and more innovation. “I would like to see more regional cooperation on this because we have friends around the Baltic, and we can do more together,” he said.  

Liwång stressed how interdependent countries are, meaning that they will be impacted by the policy choices of their neighbours. As an example, Sweden can only stop its own expansion of offshore wind, but the Swedish armed forces will need to manage offshore wind parks that other countries establish in the Baltic Sea. “There are offshore wind parks in the Baltic Sea, so all parties need to learn more about the effects of those – on defence, on the environment, on the sea and other aspects.”  

Inspiring each other 

Energy is an area where regional collaboration is already well established. Sulev Alajoe, Managing Director of Estonian Islands Energy Agency, described the intense knowledge exchange between four islands in the Baltic Sea: Åland (Finland), Bornholm (Denmark), Gotland (Sweden) and Saaremaa (Estonia). “Three of us are studying what Bornholm is doing as it is becoming an energy hub between the Danish and German market; this is a good example. You need to plan offshore installations internationally, between countries, not just carrying out your national marine spatial plans,” he said. 

Alajoe hopes to see greater investment in offshore wind and so-called power-to-x technologies that could make renewable energy more flexible and predictable. In his view, this is important for the region to be economically competitive, but also to strengthen national security, demonstrating that countries in the region can work together. “Fear cannot be our main approach but the other way around – we should collaborate more. We have a joint Baltic Sea basin where we can build wonderful joint projects and interconnect our electricity markets; we must show that we are not frightened anymore.”  

The panellists argued that fostering cross-sectoral dialogues in the region is not just beneficial, but essential. By bringing together stakeholders across energy, defence, environment, and civil society, we can strengthen collective understanding, anticipate emerging risks, and build the foundations for a more secure and sustainable future. 

Trends for the future 

The session was organized by the two projects Mistra Geopolitics and Mistra Co-Creating Better Blue, both of which study how environmental, economic and security issues intersect. Karina Barquet, with an important role in both projects, noted how critical these perspectives have become.  

“In an era of shifting power dynamics and growing pressure on marine spaces, we urgently need new models for cooperation. The Baltic Sea is not only a frontline of geopolitical tension, it is also a testing ground for how we can align environmental sustainability, energy resilience, and security. What happens here will shape strategies far beyond this region,” highlights Barquet.