Assessing consumption-based emissions for the state of Oregon

Under contract to the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, SEI produced the following analyses and discussion papers:

1. Identification and evaluation of options for reducing consumption-based emissions: SEI conducted a comprehensive review of options for reducing consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions – emissions associated with producing, transporting, using and disposing of the goods and services people consume – and identified options that could be applied in Oregon. We identified major options by outcomes that could be achieved, such as reducing food waste, reducing embodied carbon in new construction, or shifting consumption to less emissions-intensive meat and dairy products. These outcomes were then modeled quantitatively as “additional measures” in the abatement analysis, described in the second work product below. SEI also identified potential policy approaches for achieving each of the outcomes, and conducted qualitative evaluations of these policy approaches against a common set of criteria (such as likelihood of emissions impact, cost-effectiveness, and economic, environmental, and societal impacts).
2. Consumption-based emissions forecast and abatement wedge analysis: This analysis estimated the potential for reducing Oregon’s consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions between 2025 and 2050. The analysis built off Oregon’s 2021 consumption-based emissions inventory, providing a simplified forecast for how these emissions could grow over time due to population and income growth. It then illustrated how existing and planned policies in Oregon, along with potential additional measures targeting consumption (identified in work product No. 1), could reduce these emissions over time, and represented these graphically as emissions abatement “wedges”.

3. Illustrative marginal abatement cost analysis: SEI assessed marginal abatement costs associated with a subset of measures for reducing consumption-base emissions. For each measure, the assessment estimated both greenhouse gas abatement potential and implementation costs and savings. The result was a simplified marginal abatement cost curve, illustrating both potential emission reductions and the cost per metric ton of CO_2-equivalent reduced. The analysis illustrated that measures to address consumption-based emissions may be cost-effective, including when compared to more traditional measures targeting sector-based emissions in Oregon.
   
4. Discussion papers: SEI developed two discussion papers on topics related to addressing consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions in Oregon. The first addressed target-setting, outlining why it could be helpful to supplement the state’s greenhouse gas reduction goals with targets for reducing consumption-based emissions and identifying options for doing so. The second explored considerations and approaches for achieving deep reductions in consumption-based emissions, in line with targets based on equitable and climate-safe global emission budgets.