Available water resources in the state of California vary year to year because of the region’s unique geography and climate. This leads to difficulty forecasting water conditions, and can lead to inaccurate water allocations. Researchers designed a model that incorporates seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation, providing a potential method to better inform water allocation decisions in the state.
Due to its singular geography and climate, the US state of California has uniquely unpredictable precipitation, making efficient water management and allocation difficult. With a water system that supports over 39 million people, it is imperative for the state to enable proactive measures in order to secure water for the population.
Researchers from SEI and the University of California, Merced propose a novel model that forecasts water runoff using seasonal (seven-month) forecasts of temperature and precipitation. The model was developed by combining historical temperature and precipitation data with seasonal forecasts. Finally, the model was tested on its ability to forecast runoff in the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins, which are critical water sources for most California residents.
The authors demonstrate that their simple modelling approach is valuable for improved forecasting of water conditions. When used in conjunction with other models of infrastructure operations, these metrics can add valuable additional information to better support water management and allocation in California.
Project / The Sacramento Water Allocation Model enables policy-makers to weigh difficult trade-offs in water use, by simulating a complex water system in the US.
Journal article / Researchers used a suite of tools to model human and aquatic habitat water needs in a California watershed and aid local water allocation policy.
SEI brief / The Sacramento Water Allocation Model, known as SacWAM, mimics one of the most complex water systems in the US.
Feature / SEI Senior Scientist Chuck A. Young explains why California saw severe water shortages this year and how better forecasting can help alleviate those challenges.
