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Climate change scenario services: From science to facilitating action

The goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, calls for an assessment of societal pathways and policy strategies. Climate change scenarios have addressed this demand by providing scientific insights on the possible pathways ahead. Despite the increased interest, the potential of climate change scenarios has not been fully realized, mostly due to a lack of an intermediary service that provides guidance on climate change scenarios.

Henrik Carlsen / Published on 26 August 2021

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Citation

Auer, C., Kriegler, E., Carlsen, H., Kok, K., Pedde, S., Krey, V. and Müller, B. (2021). Climate change scenario services: From science to facilitating action. One Earth, 4(8), 1074–1082.

This perspective presents the concept of a climate change scenario service and outlines how to make scenarios more accessible to a broader audience of societal actors and decision makers. The wide-ranging concept of a climate change scenario service presented in this paper is designed to enhance the salience, credibility and legitimacy of scenarios.

The authors present the SENSES toolkit, which implements central components of the wide-ranging service concept. The toolkit focuses on mitigation scenarios, as these are strongly under-represented in the arena of climate services, but also contain material for impact projections and adaptation scenarios. The toolkit represents an important step for research in this area.

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SEI author

Henrik Carlsen
Henrik Carlsen

Senior Research Fellow

SEI Headquarters

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Topics and subtopics
Climate : Climate policy, Climate services
Related centres
SEI Headquarters
Regions
Europe