Digital transformation in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Digital transformation refers to the widespread use of digital technologies in ways that reshape societal and economic activity, with significant impacts on sustainable development and climate challenges — both for better and for worse. Using statistical models calibrated to historical evidence in 62 countries across 12 world regions, the authors project future digital transformation within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), adding contextual richness to this scenario framework used extensively in global climate research.

In some scenarios, they find a pervasive and prolonged digital divide, with up to 45% of the assessed population by mid-century still residing in countries with relatively low levels of digital transformation despite ever-deepening digitalization in wealthier countries. The authors set out six use cases for how their explicit representation of digital transformation within the SSPs enables quantitative assessment of digitalization’s impact on energy, emissions, climate policy and Sustainable Development Goals. They also discuss challenges with using empirically calibrated models to project digital transformation given its rapid evolution and socioeconomic implications.