This article, based on an SEI Working Paper, examines the role of emissions offsets – specifically, whether host countries also count those emission reductions towards their pledged targets – for global climate change mitigation.
With the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Agreements reached in Cancún, Mexico, in December 2010, the future role of international GHG offsets in climate action has become particularly uncertain. One of the more vexing questions is how offsets will be accounted for in reporting and reviewing progress toward meeting countries’ emission-reduction pledges under the Cancún Agreements.
It is found that extensive use of international offsets, if counted both by the supplying (developing) and buying (developed) country, could effectively reduce the ambition of current pledges by up to 1.6 billion tonnes CO2e in 2020, suggesting that the current pledges could well fall even further short of the abatement needed to stay on a path consistent with limiting warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. If offsets do not represent additional reductions, then the dilution of pledges could be even greater. Possible remedies are described to address the risks of offset double-counting.
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