Key messages

  • The latest round of NDCs will frame the start of a crucial decade in which global emissions need to halve, including those from industry.
  • The majority of NDCs include industry in their scope and almost two-thirds now include detailed industry transition measures, showing progress in the coverage of industry transition.
  • However, 6 out of the 15 highest industrial emitters with an updated NDC do not specify any mitigation measures that address industry, while several other high emitters have yet to submit an updated NDC.
  • NDCs do not provide the full picture of measures in place and examining and understanding the political context at a national level can provide a better indication of the priority placed on industry transition.
  • Nevertheless, NDCs play an important role for policymakers, industry and civil society. The NDC process should be strengthened by identifying barriers to more detailed industry transition measures within NDCs and challenges to their implementation.

In 2019, the Leadership Group for Industry Transition  (LeadIT) Secretariat undertook an assessment  of industry transition measures captured in the first round of nationally determined contributions  (NDCs) using our NDC Industry Scorecard and analysis method (Figure 1 ). We found a lack of concrete transition plans.

As parties have been submitting the latest updates to their NDCs in the run-up to COP26 , we have taken the opportunity to conduct a second analysis of industry transition measures. Using the same method, we assessed 94 updated NDCs submitted up to 30 September 2021. Our assessment allows us to evaluate the progress made in raising industry transition ambition levels in NDCs and the extent to which parties are proposing detailed decarbonization plans for their heavy industries.

The latest iterations of NDCs will frame the start of a crucial decade for industry transition and climate action. Global emissions need to halve by 2030 and the severe impacts of climate change are increasingly being felt across the world . As the global climate agenda shifts its focus from negotiations to implementation, the commitments in NDCs will play a critical role in sending clear signals of support to industries needing to transform their business models.

Is industry transition now a priority in the latest round of NDCs?
Figure 1. NDC Industry Scorecard and analysis method. Graphic: Mia Shu / SEI.