The implications of transboundary climate risks for India

This brief examines an important, emerging subject for India that warrants urgent research and policy attention: transboundary climate risks.

Transboundary climate risks (TCRs) arise when the impacts of climate change in one country or jurisdiction generate a threat to the economy, society or ecosystems of another. They also manifest when mitigation or adaptation actions in one place generate adverse effects in another.

This discussion brief examines India’s current and future exposure to transboundary and cascading climate risks. It aims to synthesize the state of knowledge, using the relatively new and limited but growing evidence base for what has been termed “next generation” climate risks. It draws on new data analysis conducted specifically for the brief, a rapid literature review, interviews with key stakeholders, and a science-policy dialogue that brought together policymakers, experts and practitioners from across the country to discuss the subject. Held in Delhi in 2023, the dialogue also explored the implications and opportunities for India from establishing a regional institutional mechanism to strengthen cooperation on adaptation across the span of the Hindu Kush Himalaya.

The brief concludes with four recommendations to help India examine the transboundary climate risks it faces and to make the country more resilient to these and other climate risks. The authors argue that there is an urgent need for research to examine the potential threats to India’s economy, investments and people – and to better understand the socio-economic implications at all levels, from the micro scale (effects on the most vulnerable households) to the macro scale (threats to India’s economic growth aspirations). The authors argue that stronger adaptation planning is essential to build the resilience of communities in India to present and future risks.