This chapter describes how multiple factors, including climate change, are coalescing to threaten water resources and ecosystem services in the Mediterranean region.
The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable European regions to climate change, e.g. in terms of future water shortages, losses of agricultural potential and biome shifts. Southeastern Mediterranean countries differ significantly in their demographic and economic development and projected climatic changes – in particular aridification – from northern Mediterranean countries, making them generally more vulnerable.
Climate change is but one driver of change in the Mediterranean, which interacts with other drivers such as land use change, urbanization, tourism, globalization, etc. In combination, these drivers cause increasing pressure and often land and natural resource degradation, most prominently desertification in the southeastern Mediterranean.
CIRCE has assessed the vulnerability of agriculture and forestry as well as other ecosystem services, e.g. water provisioning and carbon storage. A range of different models at different scales have been employed to simulate these ecosystem services under global change for the full Mediterranean basin and sub-regions.
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