On 29 January, SEI hosted its fifth edition of its annual trendspotting webinar, Currents. Experts explored the forces shaping the year ahead: major shifts that can be anticipated, and subtler undercurrents that could steer the world in unexpected directions. The focus was on how to respond to a complex web of global challenges.

“It’s of course not the role of research to prescribe policies, but we can clarify which options for action exist and their implications. And that will be the focus of many discussions here today,” said SEI Engagement and Impact Director Annika Markovic when opening the event.

Drawing on insights from SEI’s eight centres across five continents, Currents 2026 highlighted three trends likely to shape the year ahead:

1. The unintended consequences of climate action will attract greater attention. In response to a growing backlash, countries must learn to design more equitable policies.  
2. The private sector will be asked to invest more in sustainable development. To succeed, this will require science-based frameworks and a well-functioning public sector.
3. The ocean will play an increasingly important role in international relations. Paradoxically, both as a catalyst for global sustainability and a theatre of intensifying geopolitical rivalry.   

Read an in-depth analysis of each trend below.

Ahead of Currents 2026, SEI shared a poll on social media to gather views on which developments should be followed most closely in the year ahead. Many respondents felt that tackling climate change is becoming more difficult, driven both by a backlash against certain policies and by a sharp, unexpected rise in demand for energy and natural resources. The poll also asked what gives people hope, generating many thoughtful and inspiring responses. Here you can read more about the poll and what people shared.

Ivonne Lobos Alva, team leader for Sustainable Transitions at SEI Latin America, moderated Currents 2026 and led a panel discussion with four researchers: Ed Carr (Centre Director SEI US), Katy Harris (Senior Policy Fellow, SEI Headquarters), Alphayo Lutta (Research Fellow SEI Africa) and Charlotte Wagner (Senior Scientist SEI US).

In addition to discussing the identified trends, Ivonne Lobos Alva asked the panel what gives them hope:

“Science,” Ed Carr responded. “In this era of uncertainty and even hostility towards research, the character of science might keep us on the right path. In the end, science is motivated by a desire to know and understand.”

In her concluding remarks, SEI’s Research Director Somya Joshi noted how many of the trends relate to resource geopolitics and weaponization of interdependencies, creating tension between a focus on sovereignty and a global commons approach. 

“We definitely need to build better foresight on how we manage risks across the geopolitical boundaries we touched upon,” she said. 

At the same time, Somya Joshi believes the challenging times we are living through can be seen as a pendulum swing: “A lot of the darkness and a lot of the despair that we are currently witnessing is a pendulum swing. What we can hope for, and work actively for (…) is shifting that in the other direction of collective action.”