The idea of “just energy transitions” is all the rage, but what does that actually mean?
SEI researchers discuss why it is important to define the concept and how well China and southeast Asian countries uphold its tenets.
It’s no secret in the climate science field that we are only losing ground in the global goal of replacing fossil fuel energy sources with low-carbon ones such as renewable energies. Emissions continue to rise, countries are still building coal-fired power plants and the climate policy rollback by an isolationist Trump administration in the US has put a serious dent in efforts to limit global warming to even 2°C.
But not all is doom and gloom. While climate action takes the back seat in the EU and the US, there is fresh momentum in Asia. Most of the region has adopted net zero targets. Countries like China and Viet Nam have heavily invested in renewable energy and tripled their clean energy capacity to 1827 GW and 49 GW, respectively, between 2015 and 2024. Additionally, in a global first, countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and China vowed to collaborate for a “just, affordable, inclusive and orderly energy transition” in an official statement after the first trilateral meeting in Kuala Lumpur in June.
However, while talk of “just energy transitions” is on everyone’s lips, it is unclear what this concept means and what justice on energy transition pathways looks like. Further, there is little to no evidence about whether justice elements are appropriately reflected in Asian policies and development plans. To avoid backlash against climate action, it is of the utmost importance to make energy transition more just by distributing the benefits more equally within societies, minimizing negative impacts on the environment and people. Therefore, a better understanding of what constitutes a just energy transition and how to support it with appropriate policies is key to scaling energy transition efforts in Asia and beyond.
To further this understanding, we conducted a first exploratory study in eight Asian countries, including China. Based on expert opinions and literature reviews, we first developed an 18-indicator just energy transition (JET) framework – the JET18 – on what constitutes a truly just energy transition program. We then conducted a policy analysis of 74 energy and development policies in those countries, analysing and scoring over 8000 pages with the help of an AI large language model to see how those 18 indicators were reflected across selected policies.
The 18-indicator JET framework (JET18) produced by the authors.
Graphic: Mia Shu / SEI
The good news is that elements of justice were found in many selected policies. The less good news is that there remains significant room for improvement.
No country scored above the 50% threshold of the maximum possible score, illustrating that concrete verifiable objectives and measures are clearly lacking in analyzed policies.
For instance, unemployment provisions for fossil fuel workers that might lose their jobs during a transition towards renewable forms of energy were rarely reflected in our policy sample. This is an important gap for countries like China or Indonesia, where millions of people work in fossil fuel industries, most of whom are expected to face difficulties finding new green jobs without adequate support.
Other justice elements insufficiently considered are environmental restoration measures to clean up mining sites, recycling provisions of renewable energy waste and land rights of local communities. These blind spots in policies could open the door to more environmental pollution, millions of tonnes of additional waste and human rights abuses as a result of efforts intended to do the opposite.
And finally, clear objectives for market reform were mostly missing in our policy sample. But measures such as allowing the sale of green electricity back to the grid by individuals, opening up electricity systems to independent power producers or providing incentives for people to form energy communities that jointly own and operate energy installations are critical for a flexible, more decentralized grid based on renewable energy. In the same vein, while many policies recognize the importance of multi-stakeholder dialogues and feedback loops – important for securing public buy-in amid energy transitions – verifiable targets and provisions for engaging people, communities and businesses, in the decision-making and feedback process are seldom provided in analysed policies.
While these were the most notable shortcomings, other indicators such as supporting women’s empowerment in transition pathways – for instance, as part of the labour force – or accommodating variety of views among communities during a transition (and agree on a pathway palatable for a large majority) did not fare well.
Indeed, all indicators of justice in energy transitions could use a stronger commitment from policy makers in Asia. But how to facilitate that?
First, we need more research insights into how justice is reflected in current policies. While our analysis was an important first step, our sample was small and contained only policies available in English. A more thorough investigation and one that uses local language documents, is needed to get a clearer picture on what elements of justice are lacking in Asian policies.
Second, policymakers must include more elements of justice in their energy and development policies, using concrete and verifiable objectives to commit to clear targets that help achieve truly just energy transitions. While our JET18 framework might be adapted to local contexts, we hope it is the starting point of a conversation on what it means to realize just energy transitions.
However, having just policies in place is only half of the effort. Implementation is the even more important side of the equation, since policies that are not enforced are only marginally worth more than the paper they are printed on. Once policies are adopted, they must result in concrete and adequately funded actions on both national and subnational levels, monitored and their impacts evaluated regularly.
Just energy transitions harbor a huge opportunity for job creation and sustainable development, not to mention that they are indispensable for tackling global climate change Asia is one of the most dynamic regions in the world, ripe with opportunity to lead energy transition efforts. But to deliver on these efforts, leadership must comprise a large coalition working towards one vision. Partners must share burdens appropriately and distribute benefits widely, while at the same time making sure marginalized voices are heard and empowered in the process. Only with these commitments can we then speak of truly just energy transitions.
SEI report / This report analyses how just energy transitions figure into the policies of southeast Asian countries and China.
SEI report / This report analyses how just energy transitions figure into the policies of southeast Asian countries and China.
Project / SEI aims to support transitions from coal that address inequality and poverty.
Perspective / As Indonesia promises a zero-carbon economy by 2060, SEI suggests 5 principles essential for implementation in policy for Indonesia’s just coal transition.
