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Journal article

Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world

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Journal article

Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world

Researchers explore development scenarios for low- and lower-middle-income countries should fossil fuel production and use decline to limit global warming.

SEI’s Ploy Achakulwisut contributed to this journal article, published in Nature Energy.

Ploy Achakulwisut / Published on 8 February 2024

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Citation

Foster, V., Trotter, P.A., Werner, S., Niedermayer, M., Mulugetta, Y., Achakulwisut, P., Brophy, A., Dubash, N. K., Fankhauser, S., Hawkes, A., Hirmer, S., Jenkins, S., Loni, S., McGivern, A., Nanthavong, K., Probst, B., Pye, S., Russo, V., Semeniuk, G., Shenga, C., ... Yang, P. Development transitions for fossil fuel-producing low and lower–middle income countries in a carbon-constrained world. (2024). Nature Energy. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-023-01440-3

The production and use of coal, oil and gas must rapidly decline to to keep the 1.5°C global warming goal in reach.

At COP28, governments agreed to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner”. What this means and how it can be achieved in practice are some of the most pertinent and complex questions our society faces as we race to keep 1.5°C in reach, especially for fossil fuel producers in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs).

In this Nature Energy article, the authors propose a classification of three different types of transitions and support, arguing that the different qualities in LLMICs’ fossil fuel production and usage substantially impacts their pathways towards low-carbon development, namely: an energy transition, an economic transition, and an equitable fossil fuel production transition. Based on this classification scheme, the authors focus on four countries – Mozambique, India, Lao PDR and Angola – as illustrative LLMICs with varying contexts.

The authors argue that crafting an approach to replacing fossil fuels that is acceptable to all countries depends on coordinated action at both national and international levels, including a substantial, comprehensive, accessible and rapid burst of financial and capacity-building support targeted towards fossil-fuel-producing LLMICs.

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SEI author

Ploy Achakulwisut

Research Fellow

SEI US

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