Uncovering sub-regional drivers of deforestation in the Amazon: a tool for targeted solutions

This technical brief provides the first region-wide analysis of the commodity-specific agricultural drivers of deforestation across the Amazon region at a subnational level, offering insights to inform more effective and equitable conservation policy. The authors achieve this by integrating subnational agricultural production statistics with satellite data on land use and commodity production for each country within the Amazon region. By enhancing the granularity of commodity-specific deforestation, this information can empower (sub-)regional and national actors, as well as policymakers, to develop targeted solutions that support sustainable land use planning and forest conservation policies tailored to each distinct country and subnational realities.

Key takeaways

• The expansion of agricultural land use – pastures and cropland – is the main driver of deforestation across the Amazon region. However, the data presented here also show substantial areas of forest degradation throughout the Amazon; highlight the important role of mining in driving deforestation in the Guiana Shield; and indicate that land speculation and indirect land-use change are likely to be prominent drivers of deforestation.
• Agriculture-driven deforestation shows a declining trend in most Amazon countries in recent years (2017–2022), with the exception of Brazil – where it is relatively stable – and Ecuador – where it is much higher than historical levels. Despite cropland expansion accounting for only 22% of total deforestation between 2017–2022, compared to 78% from cattle ranching, trends indicate that it is becoming a more prevalent driver of deforestation across the Amazon region, particularly in Bolivia, Ecuador, Peruand Venezuela. Sub-national deforestation patterns across the Amazon reveal distinct drivers (2017–2021), with pasture dominating in the eastern and central portions of the Amazon – but advancing into the interior of the region,and crop expansion – particularly soy in Bolivia and staples like maize, rice, and cassava in Peru and Venezuela – prevailing in the western, southern, and northwestern subregions. These results highlight the need for targeted strategies and interventions to address deforestation, tailored to specific subnational contexts.
• A key limitation in uncovering explicit drivers of deforestation is the availability of high-quality land use data. Such data is crucial for understanding complex land-use change dynamics and for accurate attribution of deforestation to specific commodities. Additionally, this data is essential for gaining deeper insights into the impacts of socio-economic factors, such as market dynamics, trade, and finance, on deforestation at a more granular, subnational scale. Closing this data gap requires active collaboration among state agencies, research institutions, NGOs and the private sector, ensuring comprehensive data collection, knowledge sharing, and resource coordination to better inform policy actions towards effectively halting deforestation.