From Lima to Paris, and beyond: options for ex ante assessment of intended nationally determined contributions under the UNFCCC

The authors identify key choices to be made in Lima, and the implications of these choices for the road to Paris. They argue that an ex ante assessment process for the intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) under a 2015 international climate change agreement may provide an important means to ensure that INDCs are in line with internationally agreed objectives and principles, to enhance understanding of countries’ climate actions, and to build trust among Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

The shape and contents of ex ante assessment will be determined by three issues that require a decision at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 20) in Lima:
• the nature and scope of INDCs;
• the level of guidance to Parties on complementary information accompanying the INDCs; and
• the level of guidance for the assessment process itself.

In making these decisions, the Parties need to consider a variety of issues related to the design, organization and timing of the ex ante assessment. Whatever decision is adopted in Lima on a formal assessment under the UNFCCC, it is likely that an informal assessment process, including informal consultations among Parties and in-depth analyses by observer organizations, will be carried out regardless.

Read the briefing paper (external link to Nordic Council)