Current research does not cover a wide spectrum of interconnections through which Sweden is affected by impacts occurring elsewhere. To address this gap in existing research, during 2015 Mistra-SWECIA researchers have been developing a framework for analysis of indirect impacts of climate change, as well as a global index for measuring exposure to indirect impacts
Based on this framework, two case studies have been conducted on impacts on the Swedish manufacturing industry, one qualitative and one quantitative, the latter with particular focus on forest industries. The starting point for the conceptual framework for analysing indirect impacts of climate change is that direct effects that occur in one country or region may be transferred to another country or region by flows related to biophysical factors, trade, finance or people.
In addition to these four pathways, the framework also takes into account a country’s degree of globalization, for example the extent to which the country is connected to other countries via membership in international organizations, restrictions on trade, the number of internet users, etc.
Publication of the global index, the research framework and the two case studies is scheduled for 2016.
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