The 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook

The study assesses ASEAN measures for energy resilience, which include exploring technologies for grid integration, the use of fossil fuels during the transition, improving industrial efficiency, scaling up renewable energy, financing energy transition, and managing the safety of nuclear power.

AEO reports were previously developed primarily by Northern institutions for the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE). Now, with support from SEI, ACE has built an internal team that develops its own Outlook and performs 100% of its own modelling work.

Following the previous edition, the study continues to examine three central energy scenarios: the Baseline Scenario, AMS (National) Targets Scenario (ATS), and the APAEC (Regional) Targets Scenario (APS).

This year’s report introduces the Least-Cost Optimisation (LCO) Scenario, a technology-neutral optimisation applied to the power sector. This scenario considers the cost-effectiveness, affordability and technology maturity to fulfil the growing electricity demand.

The report contains the following takeaways:

• ASEAN will triple its 2020 energy demand growth by 2050. The region could become a net importer of gas by 2025 and net importer of coal by 2039.
• The LCO Scenario sheds light on a cost-effective alternate future, post-2025, where the electricity generation system could cost USD 174.7 billion less than the regional target scenario from 2021–2050 to secure the power grid and battery and energy storage systems. 
• Strong renewable deployment in the regional policies scenarios would generate emissions at 4.3 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita (25% less than baseline), create 5.5 million jobs by 2050 and use 8.8 million hectares of land for biofuel. 

SEI researchers Jason Veysey, Charlie Heaps, Taylor Binnington and Silvia Ulloa supplied technical support for this work.