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The Production Gap Report 2021

The third edition of the Production Gap Report reveals that governments’ plans for fossil fuel production remain dangerously out of sync with pledges consistent with the Paris Agreement’s global warming limits.

Citation

SEI, IISD, ODI, E3G, and UNEP. (2021). The Production Gap Report 2021. http://www.productiongap.org/2021report

Leading research institutes and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) find that despite increased climate ambitions and net-zero commitments, governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

This report first introduced and quantified the “production gap” in 2019. Two years on, with the climate crisis clearer and more urgent than ever, governments continue to bet on extracting far more coal, oil, and gas than is consistent with agreed climate limits – and even those pledges won’t hold global warming to even 2°C.

Many governments have announced new, more ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets, including net-zero pledges, since the report’s 2019 debut. While this is a positive development, only a few fossil-fuel-producing countries have begun to grapple with how zeroing out global GHG emissions will affect their future coal, oil, and gas production.

This report provides country profiles for 15 countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The profiles summarize each country’s stated national climate ambitions; available information on government views, projections, and support for fossil fuel production; and emerging policies and discussions towards a managed and equitable wind-down of production.

While some countries are beginning to discuss and enact policies towards a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel production, these efforts have not yet affected the plans and strategies of major producing countries.

More on the 2021 Production Gap Report

SEI authors

Ploy Achakulwisut

Research Fellow

SEI US

Elisa Arond

Research Fellow

SEI Latin America

Lynsi Burton

Communications Officer

Communications

SEI US

Peter Erickson

SEI Affiliated Researcher

SEI US

Natalie Jones

Michael Lazarus
Michael Lazarus

Senior Scientist

SEI US

Miquel Muñoz Cabré

Senior Scientist

SEI US

Profile picture of Harro van Asselt
Harro van Asselt

SEI Affiliated Researcher

SEI US

José Vega Araújo

Research Associate

SEI Latin America

Cleo Verkuijl
Cleo Verkuijl

Scientist

SEI US

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