In 2024, more than 70 countries representing about half the global population underwent national elections, bringing a new set of administrations and leaders to the fore just as nationally determined contributions are due to the UNFCCC.

And that’s just the beginning of the geopolitical changes in store for 2025.

The year ahead carries great weight for the prospects of international climate cooperation, not only with new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) due, but also a critical juncture for the future of COP negotiations, following the insufficient COP29 deal the Climate Action Network called a “betrayal”. Next year’s COP30 – taking place in Brazil, home to 60% of the rapidly diminishing Amazon rainforest – promises to cast a spotlight on nature and grapple with how to fulfil the climate finance pledge made at COP29.

But geopolitical roiling persists, which will both directly and indirectly shape the success of these negotiations.

Winds of change

The 2024 election supercycle climaxed with a victory in the US for Donald Trump, who ran on mass deportation of immigrants, steep tariffs and drastic deregulation, namely in environmental laws. He issued an order initiating the US’s exit from the Paris Agreement – again – upon his swearing-in. But, while he takes a friendly Congress and Supreme Court with him into his administration – with pledges to leave NATO, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the UNFCCC all in play – it remains unclear what promises he can follow through on.

More broadly, political incumbency is losing its power, even in countries where reigning leaders have, on paper, come out on top. This phenomenon reflects the public’s eroding trust in the leaders expected to both spearhead domestic green transitions and form multilateral climate agreements. In the US, India, South Africa, France and the UK, reigning parties lost, under-performed or ceded ground to fringe ideologues gaining footholds in representative bodies. Political turmoil only accelerated as the calendar year turned over: South Korea’s president is impeached and arrested, Germany’s newly dissolved parliament prompts a February snap election, and Canada’s leadership is now up in the air in the wake of Justin Trudeau’s resignation, coming as Trump retakes the White House next door. Isolationism and cost-of-living crises fuel the abandonment of entrenched political parties at a time when global cooperation and investment are required to boost the ambition of 2025 NDCs so that global plans can help limit global heating to 1.5°C, down from the current track of 2.5–2.9°C.

The green arms race

However, while green diplomacy is largely stalled, green trade wars ratchet up. The green arms race among countries stokes economic competition and protectionism, and serves as just one front on which adversaries throw their weight around, box others out of progress, and intensify dependencies.

This dynamic promises to come to a head in China, whose massive investment in electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries made the country responsible for nearly 70% of global EV production in 2023. From 2017 to 2023, China’s EV exports surged 13 300%, in which time it surpassed Japan as the world’s largest overall vehicle exporter. Such dominance can pose existential crises for major car-making countries like Japan, US and Germany, and may only serve to propel more trade barriers, increasing the price of the green transition.

Furthermore, China promised countries in Africa USD $50 billion during the next three years, which could boost the continent’s infrastructure and green tech capacity, but also increase Africa’s economic dependence on China by saddling countries with even more debt.

Not-so-cold wars

But the green arms race may be ultimately supplanted by a literal arms race. Tensions between China and its neighbors, rabid pursuit of AI technologies, new advances in drone weaponry, exploding conflict in the Middle East, and US aid for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel have fuelled a surge in global military spending and defense industry profits. Combined with climate-linked instability and resource scarcity, security shoots to the top of the agendas of countries, the private sector, and the global order. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), defense spending went up in each of the five SIPRI-designated world regions for the first time since 2009.

Furthermore, border conflict, civil war and battles against organized crime have accounted for some of the world’s greatest jumps in defense spending in countries such as the Dominican Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan.

Despite the looming deadline for more ambitious national climate plans, countries have not abandoned their pursuits of fossil fuel supremacy or independence, and hydrocarbons continue to dominate international commerce and relations. Venezuela still claims a major portion of neighboring Guyana that contains some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Middle East tensions could lead to some near-term disruptions to exports from the region. And the International Energy Agency estimates that, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent scramble to find non-Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), the world will see an almost 50% boost in LNG capacity by 2030, perpetuating the financial incentive for fossil fuel dependence. Furthermore, Europe’s shift to Algerian gas exports has funnelled massive profits to the North African country, much of which it plunged into – yes – its military.

A planet on the move

Internal and international conflict are also driving migration. The December 2024 Syrian coup will represent one of the most prominent illustrations of modern migration issues, as thousands of refugees plot a return home from within and outside the country’s borders. The UN estimates that more than 115 000 people already returned to Syria from other countries in less than four weeks after the fall of the Assad regime. Many more continue to weigh their options in the face of economic and political uncertainty in their home country – to say nothing of the Middle East broadly.

Climate change and even surges in green jobs also pull economically driven movement, as noted in the recent ASEAN Migration Outlook. Those more likely to be swept up in the effects of migration are those with a lack of resources – namely women and girls – to escape dangers such as natural disasters and war, making those vulnerable populations even more susceptible to poverty, food security and human trafficking. Similarly, marginalized communities also stand to be the first affected in ongoing wars, as well as in Trump’s nativist vision to deport millions who came to the US for its economic and social promise.

This is all baggage countries will surely tote with them to the Financing for Development summit, COP30, G20 meetings, NDCs, and all the forums in which countries, civil society, and the private sector must ask themselves: Who are we looking out for?

Listen to the podcast episode

Global leadership, trade and conflict are evolving at a breakneck pace. What does it all mean for climate and security? In this episode, three experts dig into how changes in the world order ripple through climate negotiations, social movements, the energy sector and the global economy, reflecting on their hopes and fears for the coming year. Featuring: Leo Horn-Phathanothai, an author, strategist and non-profit leader, SEI Africa Centre Director Philip Osano, and SEI Research Fellow Katie Browne.

This episode is part of SEI’s Currents in sustainability series, a podcast by Stockholm Environment Institute, where we examine the forces shaping our global path towards a sustainable future.

Drawing on insights across SEI’s HQ and seven research centres, we explore our key foresights on issues underpinning transformative change.

Listen and subscribe to the series on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube and Amazon Music and Audible.