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Project

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Electrification potential analysis for Baltics – past and future developments

In spring 2026, the European Commission set a target of doubling the share of electricity in Europe’s final energy consumption by 2040, raising it from the current 23% to 46%.

This study analysed the electrification potential for the three Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The analyses shows that the Baltic states have the potential to keep pace with the EU target, but at present the countries are still far from reaching it.

Active project

2025–2026

The study evaluates current electrification levels across key economic sectors, including industry, buildings, and transport, and analyzes historical developments since 2000/2005. Building on this analysis, the study develops projections for the years 2035/2040 based on available data and relevant studies. It further identifies sectors with relatively low electrification uptake but significant potential for decarbonization, and provides a broad assessment of how increased electrification may influence electricity network charges and overall system costs.

Press

Project team

Gowtham Muthukumaran

Expert (Climate Systems and Energy Policy Unit)

SEI Tallinn

Selma Guyon

Junior Expert (Climate Systems and Energy Policy Unit)

SEI Tallinn

Peter Robert Walke

Senior Expert (Climate Systems and Energy Policy Unit)

SEI Tallinn

Ansel Cheng-Wei Yu

Junior Expert (Climate Systems and Energy Policy Unit)

SEI Tallinn

Johanna Lehtmets

Communications Manager

Communications

SEI Tallinn

Anette Parksepp

Communications Expert

Communications

SEI Tallinn

This study is funded by Sunly AS.