Evidence from the Ground: Adaptation Progress from Project Implementation (GroundProgress)

Why this matters

The Paris Agreement set a global goal on adaptation: to enhance adaptive capacity, strengthen resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development and ensuring an adequate adaptation response. Progress towards this goal is assessed every five years through the Global Stocktake. The first Global Stocktake highlighted two urgent needs: stronger adaptation action and better evaluation of adaptation efforts.

To address these needs, countries adopted the UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience in 2023. Under this framework, 100 adaptation indicators have been proposed under seven thematic and four cross-cutting targets. These indicators can be used to measure adaptation progress both within individual countries and collectively. The indicators will be central to the second Global Stocktake in 2028.

The challenge

In developing countries, adaptation projects are often funded by multilateral climate funds and bilateral donors. For funders and implementers of these projects, systematic reporting on the effectiveness of their interventions is rarely prioritised or documented in the academic literature. The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative found that only 3.4% of relevant journal articles provide evidence of outcomes after adaptation projects are implemented.

This lack of post-project data means the 2028 Global Stocktake must rely on project reports to assess progress in adaptation. These reports vary in quality, accessibility and methodology. To strengthen global assessments, reporting must be more systematic, harmonised across projects, and made publicly available in a central database (Canales et al., 2023).

Our approach

GroundProgress examines adaptation efforts in developing countries financed through international public support, using the UAE Framework as a starting point. It focuses on three key questions:

1. What adaptation progress has been achieved with Swedish and global public support in the past decade?
2. How can project-based evidence inform the Global Stocktake?
3. What is needed for reliable future reporting on adaptation effectiveness?

Closing the evidence gap

GroundProgress uses under-explored grey literature, including project reports and documentation from internationally funded initiatives. By combining AI, evidence synthesis methods, and co-creation with practitioners, funders and policymakers, the project will generate a more complete picture of adaptation progress.