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Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture

The authors integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong.

Thanapon Piman / Published on 14 February 2023

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Citation

Chang, C.-H., Lee, H., Do, S. K., Du, T. L. T., Markert, K., Hossain, F., Ahmad, S. K., Piman, T., Meechaiya, C., Bui, D. D., Bolten, J. D., Hwang, E., & Jung, H. C. (2023). Operational forecasting inundation extents using REOF analysis (FIER) over lower Mekong and its potential economic impact on agriculture. Environmental Modelling & Software, 162, 105643. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105643

In the Lower Mekong River Basin floodplains, rice cultivation is highly crucial for regional and global food security. However, prolonged flooding can pose damage to rice cultivation and other socio-economic aspects. Yet there is no rapid operational inundation forecasting system that can help decision-makers proactively mitigate flood damages.

Here, we integrated the so-called Forecasting Inundation Extents using Rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (FIER) framework with an altimetry-based operational Mekong River level forecasting system and built an operational web application, FIER-Mekong that generates daily skillful forecasted inundation extents (>70% of critical success index) and depths in about 3 and 30 s, respectively, with up to 18-day lead times.

One of its applications, predicting flood-induced rice economic losses, is also presented. Had FIER-Mekong being adopted, we estimated that the rice damages, up to USD 87 and 53 million during the 2020 and 2021 harvest time, respectively, could have been avoided.

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SEI author

Thanapon Piman
Thanapon Piman

Senior Research Fellow

SEI Asia

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