Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts

Climate change impacts do not stop at national borders. In a globally interconnected system, climate-related disruptions can cascade across sectors and regions, generating systemic risks. This paper analyses how such cascading impacts originating outside the EU may affect the region and identifies critical points for targeted adaptation.

The study combines stakeholder-informed impact chains with quantitative indicators from 102 non-EU countries, covering foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. These inputs are synthesized into an archetypal impact cascade model, which is examined using network analysis to identify where adaptation efforts could most effectively reduce risk.

“Our findings illustrate how localized climate vulnerability can propagate as systemic risk through global networks,” said lead author Cornelia Auer, senior scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). PIK led the EU-funded CASCADES project, with 11 partner organizations, including SEI. “Using our network model, we’ve mapped how disruptions — from export shocks in high-income economies to climate related conflict in low-income countries — can cascade across borders. This data-driven analysis identifies where systems in individual countries are most susceptible. It consistently highlights water and agriculture as critical domains where strategic adaptation by the EU and its partners could potentially prevent major risk cascades and enhance overall stability.” 

The analysis further emphasizes livelihoods and violent conflict as recurring critical intervention points. In low-income countries, livelihood instability and violent conflict frequently amplify cascading risks. In high-income countries, disruptions such as reduced crop exports may act as transmission channels for cross-border impacts.

The findings underscore the need for policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities. For example, increasing agricultural output without integrated water management may worsen water scarcity, while protecting livelihoods can help reduce risks related to displacement, conflict and instability.