The world is seeing increased international disputes and geopolitical tensions. In 2023, state-based conflicts reached historic levels, with 59 active conflicts, marking the highest number recorded since 1946. This report explores the potential trajectories of geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation up to 2050, and their impacts on global trade and food security.
This report explores the potential trajectories of geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation up to 2050, emphasizing this fragmentation’s impact on global trade and supply chains and on food security. Using a set of global scenarios called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, three plausible storylines for geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation are developed:
These three scenarios illustrate how escalating rivalries, the collapse of globalization and the decline of multilateral institutions could reshape international relations and economic landscapes. Policymakers can use these scenarios to prioritize strategies that address vulnerabilities in food systems and trade networks; and enhance resilience in the face of fragmentation and exacerbating climate risks.
This publication is a deliverable of the Mistra Geopolitics programme, Phase II, under the theme Food Security, funded by Mistra.
Design and development by Soapbox.