Nairobi Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (NCARP)

Nairobi, as Kenya’s capital city and primary economic hub, faces increasing climate risks that threaten its infrastructure, economy, environment, and population wellbeing. Rapid urbanisation, high population density, and the expansion of informal settlements have intensified the city’s exposure to hazards such as flooding, extreme heat, water stress, and environmental degradation. Recent events, including severe flooding episodes, have highlighted the urgency of strengthening the city’s resilience to climate impacts.

While national and county policy frameworks, including the National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) 2023–2027, Kenya’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) 2021–2025, and the Nairobi Climate Action Plan 2020–2050, recognize these risks and outline priority interventions, a critical gap remains in translating climate risks into quantified economic impacts and actionable investment decisions.

The Nairobi Climate Adaptation and Resilience Plan (NCARP) Workstream 1 aims to develop a credible, spatially explicit, and decision-ready analytical framework that enables the Nairobi City County Government (NCCG) to quantify climate risks, estimate the cost of inaction, and prioritize adaptation investments. The analysis is designed not as a standalone risk assessment, but as a decision-support tool that links climate science, spatial analysis, and economic modelling to planning, budgeting, and climate finance mobilization. The study focuses on priority climate impact drivers relevant to Nairobi, including flooding (both pluvial and riverine), extreme heat, and water stress. It also incorporates air pollution as an interacting environmental risk that amplifies health and economic impacts.