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The transmission of climate impacts through international trade: implications for the EU

The historical evidence and the economic literature confirm that international trade can play an important role in smoothing negative economic shocks experienced by a country. There is, however, a growing body of evidence that trade can also act as a transmission channel for localized crises, especially those affecting major importers or exporters of key commodities.

This session presented analysis of these dynamics in the context of climate change, assessing the potential effects on the EU.

10 November 2022 at 13:00 CET

ending at 14:30 CET

Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt and Online

COP27 Cascading Climate Risks Virtual Pavilion

Watch the recording

All the sessions were all recorded and are available to watch by registering for the COP27 Cascading Climate Risks Virtual Pavilion (free and quick to do).

Once signed in, select the 12:00-13:30 session titled “The transmission of climate impacts through international trade: implications for the EU“.

Joe presents at 2:51:53 and Emilie at 3:01:26.

Watch the session

In 2022, the direct impacts of climate change – such as droughts, floods, and wildfires – have become impossible to ignore.

However, these impacts can also have knock-on effects which are less immediately visible: effects that cross borders and continents, escalating through security relations, international trade, financial markets, international aid operations or migration.

Such complex chains are set to have increasingly significant impacts on our societies as the world experiences the effects of a changing climate.

Gaining an understanding of them, and the ways in which they can be mitigated and adapted to, is crucial as we move into an uncertain future.

Taking place over two days during the COP27 climate conference, the Cascading Climate Risks Virtual Pavilion, hosted by Chatham House’s Environment and Society Programme, offers the opportunity to explore these emerging dynamics with experts in the field.


Thursday 10th November (Science Day; Youth and Future Generations Day)

13.00 – 14.30 The transmission of climate impacts through international trade: implications for the EU

This session looks at trade-related, cascading macroeconomic and sectoral effects on the EU triggered by impacts on agricultural commodities, energy demand and supply chain stresses associated with the interruption of important maritime trade nodes. The effects of these dynamics on food markets will also be discussed through case studies of international food systems and Brazilian soy.


  • Francesco Bosello, Senior Scientist, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change
  • Emilie Stokeld, Research Assistant, SEI York
  • Joe Simpson, Research Assistant, SEI York
  • Richard King, Senior Research Fellow, Environment and Society Programme, Chatham House
  • Rania Zaatour, Postdoctoral Researcher, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

All times CET.

This event took place virtually in the COP27 Cascading Climate Risks Virtual Pavilion hosted by Chatham House.

SEI participants

Emilie Stokeld

Research Trainee

SEI York

Joe Simpson

Research Assistant

SEI York


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