COP30: mobilizing for human-centred transport in the coming UN Sustainable Transport Decade

Transforming mobility of people and goods is central to meeting both climate and development goals at local and global levels, a signature of the UN Decade of Sustainable Transport (2026–2035), which will be in focus at this year’s climate meeting, COP30 in Belém. But commitment is wavering at the very moment it must be strengthened.

Transport accounts for around 25% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions. At the same time, transport infrastructure investment is lagging behind the scale of and urgency need for a low carbon transition (26% of the total climate investments), with a small share reaching low-income countries (less than 3% according to the World Bank).

Furthermore, most of these investments are allocated to promoting transport electrification, mainly in high-income countries. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) find themselves “locked in” to high carbon emitting infrastructure, even as they attempt to electrify their vehicle stocks.

Major polluters in the transport sector are reluctant to change course. Financial pressures are increasing, fuel prices are volatile, and public scepticism is clear about the cost and feasibility of net zero.

At the same time, international, regional and local efforts have shown that sustainable biofuels, energy efficiency, and decentralized solutions can help to balance mobility, climate and development goals. Given these steps, we see that three priorities need to be addressed for sustainable transport: modal shifts, more shared and active mobility, and transport systems that work for all – solutions that can be brought to the table in Belém.

Alternative roads to sustainable transport

Successful programs have incentivized or covered higher costs for public transit or other solutions. Example include cheap (or even free) public transport ticket schemes, promoted by cities (e.g. Talinn, Melbourne, Calgary) and countries (e.g. Luxembourg, Malta, Germany), or the social leasing programs or bonuses for electric vehicles for low-income households (e.g. France, Italy).

Cities hold the key to even more solutions. Singapore aligns land use, metro access and car ownership limits to keep road traffic congestion low and public transport dominant. Santiago de Chile operates over 2000 electric buses powered by renewables through coordinated public-private partnerships. Curitiba links its bus rapid-transit corridors to land use zoning policies that curb sprawl. In Kenya, local electric-bus pilots combine electrification with domestic manufacturing, while Rwanda’s battery-swapping scheme enables informal transport operators to switch to clean motorbikes.

Looking outside of cities to rural areas and/or to sub-sectors where electrification and modal shifts are limited (aviation and shipping), complementary solutions are needed. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released a report on scaling up sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels. The report serves as a key analytical basis for the Belém 4X Pledge on Sustainable Fuels, which proposes a quadrupling of sustainable fuels such as hydrogen, biogas and biofuels. Brazil has also announced the Bioeconomy Challenge to scale sustainable investment in nature. If these two initiatives can be coordinated, it could open up pathways for LMICs to contribute meaningfully to climate and mobility goals while also supporting new livelihoods and modes of resource stewardship that are more economically sustainable than conservation alone.

Together, these examples show how land use and transport planning, policy integration and inclusion can make low-carbon mobility work in practice, lessons that COP30 negotiators should carry forward.

Three priorities for the next decade

SEI’s Sustainable Transport program addresses mobility challenges through equity, integration and evidence-based planning. Drawing on global experience, we show how these principles can turn COP30 commitments into real action.

1. Equity in transport: access, affordability and inclusion

COP30 should deliver a global commitment to affordable mobility, directing a far greater share of climate finance to LMICs, and scaling social-equity programs that make clean transport accessible to all.

A low carbon transport transition that is truly just requires deliberate efforts to reach communities that are currently underserved or vulnerable. SEI’s Inclusive climate-resilient transport in Africa project, for example, worked with planners in Uganda and Zambia to embed participatory, low-carbon mobility options for low-income and gender-marginalized groups. Meanwhile, our JUSTIT project investigates how transport workers in Sweden may be affected by electrification, automation and digitalization, highlighting that justice in transition means both users and workers must be part of the equation.

Better cycling and walking networks can change health, air pollution and urban liveability, a premise SEI researchers have tested in Southeast Asia with the Inclusive Low-Carbon Transport in Thailand project, which engaged national agencies to improve accessibility and affordability through better walking and cycling networks. Our Social Climate Fund analysis for Estonia further examines how EU-level support mechanisms can reduce vulnerability for low-income households during a shift away from fossil fuels.

2. Sustainable systems: modal shift and integration

 At COP30, countries should commit to integrated strategies that link transport, energy and urban planning and aim to not only to decrease emissions, but to build resilience to climate impacts and ensure mobility investments benefit all regions, not just major cities.

Decarbonizing transport will not be achieved by electrification alone. The RESPONSE project in the Baltic Sea region explored how demand-responsive public services can serve low-density and rural areas, reducing private-car dependence and improving accessibility. In Latin America, SEI researchers investigated how active travel, public-transport improvements, and urban design can jointly reduce emissions while improving quality of life in Bogota.

SEI’s Digital Mapping Toolkit facilitates the collection and analysis of data regarding the mobility needs of vulnerable populations, transforming this data into actionable insights for creating more inclusive and accessible urban transport systems.

3. Transport modelling for policy and planning

 At COP30, parties should call for transparent, science- and data-driven planning backed by clear mandates for data coordination and sharing across sectors and actors. Too often, transport, energy, and urban systems collect information in isolation, making it difficult to design or track integrated transitions. Establishing common data frameworks would help countries align investments and monitor progress more effectively.

Effective decision-making depends on data, scenarios and foresight. Our ResPT project examines how Sweden’s public-transport system can become more resilient amid disruptions, while the LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model helps policymakers simulate mobility transitions under different technology and behaviour scenarios, considering for example vehicle stock turnover and transport-energy sector integration through smart charging. The SEI project Inclusive Low Carbon Transport in Indonesia explored inclusive decarbonization pathways for national and city level planning.

SEI also contributes to improving freight-emissions accounting through the integration of air pollution and black carbon into the Global Logistics Emissions Council (GLEC) Framework project, integrating air quality and climate co-benefits into transport and logistics planning. Our research uses AI and machine learning to analyse transport data for safe roads and real-time responses to pollution and climate impacts. These tools allow governments and businesses to understand the trade-offs of different sectoral decarbonization pathways under fast-changing political conditions.

Keeping humans in focus for COP31 and beyond

As the decade for sustainable transport begins at COP30, we must ensure we are aiming for human-centred outcomes in the transport sector transition, not just new technological solutions. Cleaner air, quieter streets, shorter commute times, affordable shared mobility, safe mobility options and improved conditions for transport workers are only a few of the tangible benefits that build public support for this transition.

For the transport community and climate negotiators, the message is that acceleration matters, but so do scope and equity. Successful policies for transport decarbonization should also lead to entire transport systems that are human-centred, meaning affordable, flexible and contributing to quality-of-life improvements.

COP30 offers a window to push beyond incremental change. Transport policy should be framed not as a technology race but as a social-ecological transformation that delivers inclusive mobility, spatial justice and climate resilience, a vision guiding the SEI programs on sustainable transport.